MIN @ TEN – Week 11 2024
MIN
TEN
MIN
AWAY
23@13
MIN BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 11
2024 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
Model confidence: MIN 68%Our line: MIN -6.5
MIN
PICK SIDE
-6.0
MARKET SPREAD
-6.5
OUR LINE
-217
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.103Net EPA / play-0.146
+0.016Offense EPA / play-0.116
-0.086Defense EPA / play+0.030
45.6%Offense success %39.9%
41.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIN. Projected margin: 6.5. Actual: 10. Off by 3.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIN | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -290 | +235 |
| Our fair price | -217 | +217 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIN -6.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.42
OUR NUMBER
68%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
71%
DIFFERENCE
-3%
Both figures are for MIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
TEN
divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
66°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
MIN
J.Jefferson
WR
317.5 SEASON PPR
S.Darnold
QB
308.0 SEASON PPR
A.Jones
RB
241.6 SEASON PPR
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
S.Darnold4319 yd · 35 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
A.Jones1138 yd · 5 TD
C.Akers297 yd · 1 TD
S.Darnold212 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
J.Jefferson103 rec · 1533 yd · 10 TD
J.Addison63 rec · 875 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@MINW3 2020 | TEN 31, MIN 30 | TEN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs TEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 6.5. The market has MIN at -6.0.
The model projects 45.5 combined points. The market total is 40.0.
Week 11 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tennessee Titans, TEN 31, MIN 30 in Week 3 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN +0.103 against TEN -0.146.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
