Vikings vs Titans – Week 11 2024
MIN
TEN
MIN
AWAY
23@13
MIN BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 11
2024 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 23, Tennessee Titans 13.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Vikings, 2 Titans.
Model confidence: MIN 68%Our line: MIN -6.5
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -6.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
+0.103Net EPA / play-0.146
+0.016 (15)Offense EPA / play-0.116 (30)
-0.086 (3)Defense EPA / play+0.030 (21)
45.6% (12)Offense success %39.9% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIN. Projected margin: 6.5. Actual: 10. Off by 3.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
TEN
divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
66°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@MINW3 2020 | TEN 31, MIN 30 | TEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs TEN
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 6.5. The market has MIN at -6.0.
Minnesota Vikings won, MIN 23, TEN 13. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -6.0, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 11, the Minnesota Vikings were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Tennessee Titans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 5.5 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tennessee Titans, TEN 31, MIN 30 in Week 3 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN +0.103 against TEN -0.146.
