Rams vs Patriots – Week 11 2024
LA
NE
LA
AWAY
28@22
LA BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 11
2024 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 28, New England Patriots 22.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Rams.
Model confidence: LA 65%Our line: LA -5.3
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -5.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.030Net EPA / play-0.153
+0.014 (16)Offense EPA / play-0.083 (27)
+0.044 (25)Defense EPA / play+0.070 (29)
46.8% (10)Offense success %42.4% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LA by 5.3. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 0.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
road_favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)home_underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
NE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
59°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs NE
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LA by 5.3. The market has LA at -4.0.
Los Angeles Rams won, LA 28, NE 22. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -4.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 11, the Los Angeles Rams were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 2.9 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, NE 3, LA 24 in Week 14 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA -0.030 against NE -0.153.
