NE @ LA – Week 14 2020
NE
LA
NE
AWAY
3@24
LA BY 21
FINAL · WEEK 14
2020 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
Model confidence: LA 54%Our line: LA -1.5
LA
PICK SIDE
-5.0
MARKET SPREAD
-1.5
OUR LINE
-119
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.076Net EPA / play+0.162
-0.004Offense EPA / play-0.015
+0.071Defense EPA / play-0.177
46.1%Offense success %44.5%
48.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 1.5. Actual: 21. Off by 19.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NE | LA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +201 | -228 |
| Our fair price | +119 | -119 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LA -5.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.49
OUR NUMBER
54%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
68%
DIFFERENCE
-13%
Both figures are for LA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
NE
Cam Newton
QB
261.0 SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
142.5 SEASON PPR
James White
RB
116.6 SEASON PPR
LA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New England PatriotsPASSING
Cam Newton2657 yd · 8 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Damien Harris691 yd · 2 TD
Cam Newton592 yd · 12 TD
Sony Michel449 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Jakobi Meyers59 rec · 729 yd · 0 TD
Damiere Byrd47 rec · 604 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs LA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 54% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LA by 1.5. The market has LA at -5.0.
The model projects 46.4 combined points. The market total is 43.5.
Week 14 of the 2020 season, THU 8:20 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, LA 28, NE 22 in Week 11 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Los Angeles Rams: NE -0.076 against LA +0.162.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
