Steelers vs Bills – Week 14 2020
PIT
BUF
PIT
AWAY
15@26
BUF BY 11
FINAL · WEEK 14
2020 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 15, Buffalo Bills 26.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Steelers, 1 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 50%Our line: BUF +0.2
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -2.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF +0.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
+0.128Net EPA / play+0.147
+0.010 (17)Offense EPA / play+0.164 (4)
-0.118 (2)Defense EPA / play+0.017 (12)
43.2% (25)Offense success %50.2% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 0.2. Actual: 11. Off by 11.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
BUF
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
35°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
PIT
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
267.2 SEASON PPR
JuJu Smith-Schuster
WR
234.1 SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
223.8 SEASON PPR
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Ben Roethlisberger3803 yd · 33 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
James Conner721 yd · 6 TD
Benny Snell368 yd · 4 TD
Anthony McFarland113 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Diontae Johnson88 rec · 923 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@PITW13 2025 | BUF 26, PIT 7 | BUF | W |
| PIT@BUFW5 2022 | PIT 3, BUF 38 | BUF | W |
| PIT@BUFW1 2021 | PIT 23, BUF 16 | BUF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 0.2. The market has BUF at -2.0.
Buffalo Bills won, PIT 15, BUF 26. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -2.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 2.0 points.
In Week 14, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.2, 1.3 below the market.
Week 14 of the 2020 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 26, PIT 7 in Week 13 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Buffalo Bills: PIT +0.128 against BUF +0.147.
