PIT @ BUF – Week 14 2020
PIT
BUF
PIT
AWAY
15@26
BUF BY 11
FINAL · WEEK 14
2020 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 50%Our line: BUF +0.2
BUF
PICK SIDE
-2.0
MARKET SPREAD
+0.2
OUR LINE
+102
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.128Net EPA / play+0.147
+0.010Offense EPA / play+0.164
-0.118Defense EPA / play+0.017
43.2%Offense success %50.2%
38.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 0.2. Actual: 11. Off by 11.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PIT | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +112 | -124 |
| Our fair price | -102 | +102 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BUF -2.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.75
OUR NUMBER
50%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
54%
DIFFERENCE
-4%
Both figures are for BUF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
BUF
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
35°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
PIT
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
267.2 SEASON PPR
JuJu Smith-Schuster
WR
234.1 SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
223.8 SEASON PPR
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Ben Roethlisberger3803 yd · 33 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
James Conner721 yd · 6 TD
Benny Snell368 yd · 4 TD
Anthony McFarland113 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Diontae Johnson88 rec · 923 yd · 7 TD
Chase Claypool62 rec · 873 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@PITW13 2025 | BUF 26, PIT 7 | BUF | W |
| PIT@BUFW5 2022 | PIT 3, BUF 38 | BUF | W |
| PIT@BUFW1 2021 | PIT 23, BUF 16 | BUF | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs BUF
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 0.2. The market has BUF at -2.0.
The model projects 47.2 combined points. The market total is 48.5.
Week 14 of the 2020 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 26, PIT 7 in Week 13 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Buffalo Bills: PIT +0.128 against BUF +0.147.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
