Chiefs vs Dolphins – Week 14 2020
KC
MIA
KC
AWAY
33@27
KC BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 14
2020 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 33, Miami Dolphins 27.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Chiefs, 2 Dolphins.
Model confidence: KC 57%Our line: KC -2.4
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -2.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
+0.138Net EPA / play+0.048
+0.184 (2)Offense EPA / play+0.007 (19)
+0.045 (19)Defense EPA / play-0.041 (7)
50.1% (3)Offense success %46.0% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 2.4. Actual: 6. Off by 3.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
MIA
Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
81°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@MIAW3 2026 | KC 24, MIA 10 | KC | W |
| MIA@KCW9 2023 | MIA 14, KC 21 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs MIA
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 2.4. The market has KC at -7.5.
Kansas City Chiefs won, KC 33, MIA 27. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -7.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 14, the Kansas City Chiefs were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Miami Dolphins were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 50.0, 1.5 below the market.
Week 14 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, KC 24, MIA 10 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.138 against MIA +0.048.
