2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
KC @ MIA – Week 14 2020
KC
MIA
KC
AWAY
33@27
KC +6
FINAL · WEEK 14
2020 SEASON
MIA
HOME
TIER B
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: KC 57%Projected margin: -4.1
KC
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
-4.1
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected KC by 4.1. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 1.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -330 | Won · +$0.34 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
KC
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
MIA
Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
81°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
374.4SEASON PPR
Tyreek Hill
WR
328.9SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
312.8SEASON PPR
MIA
DeVante Parker
WR
166.3SEASON PPR
Myles Gaskin
RB
164.2SEASON PPR
Mike Gesicki
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@KCW9 2023 | MIA 14, KC 21 | KC | W |
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES