Broncos vs Panthers – Week 14 2020
DEN
CAR
DEN
AWAY
32@27
DEN BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 14
2020 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 32, Carolina Panthers 27.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 51% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Broncos, 2 Panthers.
Model confidence: DEN 51%Our line: DEN -0.3
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN +4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -0.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
51%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
-0.147Net EPA / play-0.073
-0.104 (31)Offense EPA / play+0.004 (20)
+0.043 (18)Defense EPA / play+0.077 (24)
38.8% (32)Offense success %45.0% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 0.3. Actual: 5. Off by 4.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
No noteworthy trends
CAR
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
70°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEN
Melvin Gordon
RB
198.4 SEASON PPR
Drew Lock
QB
181.3 SEASON PPR
Tim Patrick
WR
161.2 SEASON PPR
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Drew Lock2933 yd · 16 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Melvin Gordon986 yd · 9 TD
Phillip Lindsay502 yd · 1 TD
Royce Freeman170 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Jerry Jeudy52 rec · 856 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@DENW8 2024 | CAR 14, DEN 28 | DEN | W |
| DEN@CARW12 2022 | DEN 10, CAR 23 | DEN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs CAR
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 51% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DEN by 0.3. The market has DEN at +4.0.
Denver Broncos won, DEN 32, CAR 27. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 51% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Denver Broncos at +4.0, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 14, the Denver Broncos were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Carolina Panthers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.8, 2.8 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Denver Broncos, CAR 14, DEN 28 in Week 8 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Carolina Panthers: DEN -0.147 against CAR -0.073.
