DEN @ CAR – Week 14 2020
DEN
CAR
DEN
AWAY
32@27
DEN BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 14
2020 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
Model confidence: DEN 51%Our line: DEN -0.3
DEN
PICK SIDE
+4.0
MARKET SPREAD
-0.3
OUR LINE
-103
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.147Net EPA / play-0.073
-0.104Offense EPA / play+0.004
+0.043Defense EPA / play+0.077
38.8%Offense success %45.0%
43.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 0.3. Actual: 5. Off by 4.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DEN | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +177 | -199 |
| Our fair price | -103 | +103 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DEN +4.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.78
OUR NUMBER
51%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
35%
DIFFERENCE
+16%
Both figures are for DEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
No noteworthy trends
CAR
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
70°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEN
Melvin Gordon
RB
198.4 SEASON PPR
Drew Lock
QB
181.3 SEASON PPR
Tim Patrick
WR
161.2 SEASON PPR
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Drew Lock2933 yd · 16 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Melvin Gordon986 yd · 9 TD
Phillip Lindsay502 yd · 1 TD
Royce Freeman170 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Jerry Jeudy52 rec · 856 yd · 3 TD
Tim Patrick51 rec · 742 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@DENW8 2024 | CAR 14, DEN 28 | DEN | W |
| DEN@CARW12 2022 | DEN 10, CAR 23 | DEN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs CAR
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 51% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DEN by 0.3. The market has DEN at +4.0.
The model projects 48.8 combined points. The market total is 46.0.
Week 14 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Denver Broncos, CAR 14, DEN 28 in Week 8 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Carolina Panthers: DEN -0.147 against CAR -0.073.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
