Every abbreviation, metric, and term used in NFL analytics, sports betting, and fantasy football. Searchable. Linkable. No jargon left unexplained.
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NFL ANALYTICS · BETTING · FANTASY · REFERENCE
TRADITIONAL STATS
Standard box-score statistics tracked since the modern era of the NFL.
YDS
Yards
Total yards gained. Split into passing yards and rushing yards. The most common football stat and also the most context-blind.
TD
Touchdown
A scoring play worth 6 points (plus extra point attempt). Tracked per player and per team.
INT
Interception
A forward pass caught by the defense. Charged to the quarterback, though some are the receiver's fault.
CMP%
Completion Percentage
Completions divided by pass attempts. League average is roughly 65%. Inflated by short passes and screen-heavy schemes.
Y/A
Yards per Attempt
Passing yards divided by pass attempts. Includes incomplete passes but excludes sacks. A better efficiency measure than raw yardage.
YPC
Yards per Carry
Rushing yards divided by rushing attempts. League average is roughly 4.3. Heavily influenced by offensive line quality.
QBR
Quarterback Rating (ESPN)
ESPN's proprietary metric weighting play context, expected completion, and game leverage. Scale 0-100. Better than passer rating but not reproducible.
RTG
Passer Rating (NFL)
The NFL's legacy quarterback metric, designed in 1973. Scale 0-158.3. Uses CMP%, Y/A, TD%, INT%. Ignores sacks, rushing, and game context.
SACK
Sack
Quarterback tackled behind the line of scrimmage on a passing play. Tracked for both the quarterback (charged) and the defender (credited).
FUM
Fumble
Ball carrier loses possession. Not all fumbles are lost (recovered by the offense). Fumbles lost are the turnover-relevant count.
TO
Turnover
Interceptions plus fumbles lost. Turnover differential (forced minus committed) correlates with wins but is largely random season to season.
1D
First Down
Achieved by gaining the required yardage. Tracked as a volume stat for drives. More meaningful than raw yards for measuring drive sustainability.
TOP
Time of Possession
Minutes and seconds the offense holds the ball. Overrated as a standalone metric. Teams win by scoring efficiently, not by holding the ball.
3D%
Third Down Conversion Rate
Percentage of third downs converted to first downs. High variance week to week. Regresses heavily toward the mean.
RZ%
Red Zone Scoring Percentage
Percentage of red zone trips resulting in a touchdown (vs. field goal or turnover). Volatile and hard to sustain above 65%.
ADVANCED STATS
Analytics-era metrics derived from play-by-play data. These separate signal from noise. See the full EPA explainer and how power rankings use these numbers.
EPA
Expected Points Added
The change in expected points caused by a play. The gold standard for measuring play value. Positive means the play helped the offense. Full EPA explainer→
EPA/PLAY
EPA per Play
EPA divided by total plays. Normalizes for volume. The single best predictor of future NFL wins. League average is 0.00. See team EPA rankings→
DVOA
Defense-adjusted Value Over Average
Football Outsiders' signature metric. Similar to EPA but adjusted for opponent strength and game situation. Split into offense, defense, and special teams.
CPOE
Completion Percentage Over Expected
Actual completion rate minus the expected rate based on throw depth, separation, pressure, and other factors. Measures a quarterback's accuracy above what's expected.
YBC
Yards Before Contact
Rushing yards gained before the first defender makes contact. Primarily an offensive line metric, not a running back metric.
YAC
Yards After Catch
Yards gained by a receiver after catching the ball. Partially a scheme stat (screens inflate YAC) and partially a skill stat (broken tackles).
ADOT
Average Depth of Target
The average distance downfield a quarterback throws, measured from the line of scrimmage to where the pass arrives. Higher ADOT means a more vertical, aggressive passing attack.
WPA
Win Probability Added
The change in a team's win probability caused by a play. More game-context-dependent than EPA. A garbage-time TD adds EPA but minimal WPA.
SR
Success Rate
Percentage of plays that gain enough to keep the offense on schedule. Roughly: 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th.
PRESS%
Pressure Rate
Percentage of dropbacks where the quarterback was pressured (hurry, hit, or sack). More predictive of future sacks than sack rate itself.
SEP
Separation (yards)
Average distance between the receiver and nearest defender at the point of the catch or incompletion. From Next Gen Stats tracking data.
PROE
Pass Rate Over Expected
How often a team passes compared to what game situation and score suggest. Positive means pass-heavy relative to expected. Indicates scheme tendency.
NGS
Next Gen Stats
NFL's player-tracking system using RFID chips in pads. Produces speed, acceleration, separation, and route data not available from traditional charting.
BETTING STATS
Terms used in sports betting and line analysis. NoPunt tracks several of these.
ATS
Against the Spread
Whether a team covered the point spread. A team favored by 7 that wins by 10 is 1-0 ATS. A team favored by 7 that wins by 3 is 0-1 ATS. Full ATS guide→
CLV
Closing Line Value
The difference between the odds when you bet and the closing odds. Positive CLV means you beat the market. The best long-term predictor of betting profitability. Full CLV guide→
ROI
Return on Investment
Net profit divided by total amount wagered. A 5% ROI over 100 bets at $100 each means $500 profit. Anything above 0% long-term is rare. NoPunt ROI→
EV
Expected Value
The average amount you'd win or lose per bet if placed infinitely. Positive EV (+EV) bets are mathematically profitable long-term. EV betting guide→
PUSH
Push
A bet that results in a tie against the spread. The bettor gets their money back. Common with spreads on whole numbers (3, 7, 10).
VIG
Vigorish (Juice)
The bookmaker's commission built into the odds. Standard vig is -110 on both sides of a spread, meaning you risk $110 to win $100.
ML
Moneyline
A bet on which team wins straight up, no spread. Expressed as odds: -150 means risk $150 to win $100 (favorite), +130 means risk $100 to win $130 (underdog).
O/U
Over/Under (Total)
The combined score of both teams. Bookmakers set a line and bettors wager whether the actual total will be over or under that number. NoPunt O/U predictions→
SPREAD
Point Spread
The expected margin of victory. A -7 spread means the favorite is expected to win by 7 points. Bettors can take either side. How spreads work→
HANDLE
Handle
The total dollar amount wagered on an event. High handle indicates sharp and public money interest.
STEAM
Steam Move
A rapid, significant line movement caused by sharp (professional) betting action. Indicates informed money entering the market.
RLM
Reverse Line Movement
When the line moves opposite to where the majority of public bets are placed. Suggests sharp money on the less popular side.
KELLY
Kelly Criterion
A formula for optimal bet sizing based on edge and odds. Full Kelly is aggressive; most bettors use fractional Kelly (quarter or half). How NoPunt sizes→
FANTASY STATS
Scoring and projection terms used in fantasy football leagues.
PPR
Points Per Reception
Scoring format that awards 1 point per catch. Inflates the value of pass-catching backs and slot receivers. The most common modern scoring format. PPR projections→
HALF-PPR
Half Points Per Reception
Scoring format awarding 0.5 points per catch. A compromise between standard and full PPR. The second most common format.
FPTS
Fantasy Points
Total points scored under the league's scoring system. Typically: 0.04 per passing yard, 0.1 per rushing/receiving yard, 4 per passing TD, 6 per rushing/receiving TD, -2 per turnover.
PROJ
Projection
Estimated fantasy points for an upcoming game. Based on rolling averages, matchup difficulty, usage rate, and injury status. NoPunt projections→
FLOOR
Floor
The low-end projection for a player's fantasy output. A high-floor player rarely busts. Typically based on target share and rushing attempts (volume).
CEILING
Ceiling
The high-end projection for a player's fantasy output. A high-ceiling player has boom potential. Driven by big-play ability and favorable matchup.
SNAP%
Snap Share
Percentage of offensive snaps a player is on the field. The strongest single predictor of fantasy production. Below 50% snap share is a red flag.
TGT
Targets
Number of times a receiver is the intended target of a pass. Volume metric. Target share (TGT/team pass attempts) is more useful than raw count.
RZ TGT
Red Zone Targets
Targets inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Strongly correlated with touchdown production. A better TD predictor than touchdowns themselves.
OPRK
Opponent Rank
How the opposing defense ranks against a position. Lower number = tougher matchup. Used for start/sit decisions. Defense vs position→
START/SIT
Start/Sit
A recommendation on whether to play (start) or bench (sit) a player in a given week based on matchup, projections, and alternatives. Start/sit tool→
ATTD
Anytime Touchdown Scorer
A player prop bet on whether a player will score at least one TD. NoPunt models ATTD probability using opportunity share and red zone usage.
NOPUNT-SPECIFIC
Metrics and flags unique to the NoPunt prediction platform.
TIER
Confidence Tier
NoPunt's pick confidence scale: S (8+ point implied edge), A+ (5-8), A (3-5), B (1-3), C (lean). Higher tiers have historically higher hit rates. Tier methodology→
DISAGREE
Disagree Flag
Fires when NoPunt's pick is opposite the consensus moneyline. The model thinks the market is wrong. Tracked separately with real units ($100/bet). Disagree record→
CONFIDENCE
Model Confidence
The ensemble's win probability for the favored side. Ranges from 50% (coin flip) to 85%+. Computed as the average of three sub-model probabilities.
KELLY
Kelly Fraction
The optimal bankroll fraction to wager based on NoPunt's edge vs. the market price. Derived from the Kelly Criterion. Higher Kelly = larger model edge.
NET EPA
Net EPA per Play
Offensive EPA/play minus Defensive EPA/play allowed. The composite score driving NoPunt's power rankings. Positive means the team creates more value than it concedes. Power rankings→
VOTE
Ensemble Vote
The vote pattern across NoPunt's three sub-models (24-game, 33-game, 64-game windows). AAA = unanimous, AAB = majority. Unanimous picks historically hit at a higher rate. Ensemble details→
MOMENTUM
Momentum Sparkline
A visual 10-game trendline showing a team's recent win/loss pattern. Displayed on team pages and the home page.
EXPLOIT
Exploit Matchup
A player-level matchup flagged by NoPunt as a statistical mismatch. Triggered when a player's strengths align with the opposing defense's bottom-tier weakness. Exploit matchups→