PLAYOFFS
PLAYOFF SIMULATOR
Playoff Probabilities
We run 10,000 Monte Carlo brackets off our EPA-based power ratings to get every team's Super Bowl, conference, division, and playoff odds for 2026.
SF
SB FAVORITE
40.8%
SB PROBABILITY
59.3%
2026 PICK ACCURACY
TOP 5 SUPER BOWL CONTENDERS
BY MONTE CARLO WIN PROBABILITY
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP FAVORITES
BY CONFERENCE WIN PROBABILITYDARK HORSES
BEST SUPER BOWL ODDS OUTSIDE THE CONFERENCE FAVORITES
AFC
16 TEAMS| # | TEAM | SB | CONF | DIV | WC | PLAYOFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  JAX | 26.2% | 49.2% | 77.8% | <1% | >99% |
| 2 |  KC | 13.1% | 26.3% | 53.1% | 81.9% | >99% |
| 3 |  BAL | 5.7% | 12.7% | 30.3% | 69.7% | >99% |
| 4 |  CIN | 1.8% | 4.9% | 14.6% | 49.0% | >99% |
| 5 |  BUF | 1.3% | 4.1% | 13.8% | 51.0% | >99% |
| 6 |  NE | 0.6% | 2.1% | 7.4% | 30.3% | >99% |
| 7 |  LV | <1% | 0.9% | 3.0% | 18.1% | >99% |
| 8 |  PIT | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 9 |  TEN | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 10 |  IND | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 11 |  HOU | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 12 |  DEN | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 13 |  NYJ | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 14 |  CLE | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 15 |  LAC | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 16 |  MIA | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
NFC
16 TEAMS| # | TEAM | SB | CONF | DIV | WC | PLAYOFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SF | 40.8% | 67.1% | 83.5% | <1% | >99% |
| 2 |  MIN | 4.8% | 13.4% | 45.2% | 67.3% | >99% |
| 3 |  CAR | 2.6% | 7.6% | 25.3% | 58.6% | >99% |
| 4 |  SEA | 1.3% | 4.3% | 16.5% | 41.4% | >99% |
| 5 |  DET | 0.9% | 3.4% | 12.8% | 57.6% | >99% |
| 6 |  GB | 0.6% | 2.4% | 5.2% | 32.7% | >99% |
| 7 |  NYG | <1% | 1.8% | 11.6% | 42.4% | >99% |
| 8 |  NO | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 9 |  TB | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 10 |  WAS | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 11 |  PHI | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 12 |  LAR | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 13 |  DAL | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 14 |  ATL | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 15 |  ARI | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 16 |  CHI | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
59.3%
2026 ACCURACY
54-37
61.0%
LAST 4 WEEKS
36-23
METHODOLOGY
Each team is rated by EPA-derived power rating (net EPA per play plus win/loss record strength). The simulator runs 10,000 bracket iterations using a logistic win-probability model with home-field advantage. Seeds follow standard 14-team NFL playoff format (7 per conference, #1 seed gets first-round bye).