PLAYOFFS
PLAYOFF SIMULATOR
Projected Playoffs
Our preseason Monte Carlo, 10,000 brackets off the model's 2026 power ratings, for every team's Super Bowl, conference, division, #1-seed, and playoff odds. Live in-season odds take over once games are played.
BUF
SB FAVORITE
10.9%
SB PROBABILITY
2026
WEEK 0 · PROJECTED
WEEK 0
These are preseason projections, the same 10,000-bracket simulation run over the real 2026 schedule before any games. The board switches to live in-season odds, re-simulated weekly, once the season begins. See the full 2026 season outlook.
TOP 5 SUPER BOWL CONTENDERS
BY PROJECTED WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED PLAYOFF FIELD
DIVISION WINNERS SEEDED 1–4 · WILD CARDS 5–7AFC
16 TEAMS| # | TEAM | SB | CONF | DIV | BYE | PLAYOFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BUF | 10.9% | 19.1% | 56.3% | 20.5% | 77.7% |
| 2 |  BAL | 6.3% | 11.8% | 47.6% | 13.2% | 68.4% |
| 3 |  DEN | 5.1% | 10.7% | 42.0% | 10.5% | 68.0% |
| 4 |  NE | 4.8% | 8.9% | 31.6% | 9.0% | 59.6% |
| 5 |  KC | 4.0% | 8.0% | 30.5% | 7.9% | 54.9% |
| 6 |  HOU | 3.7% | 7.5% | 33.2% | 7.3% | 56.6% |
| 7 |  JAX | 3.4% | 7.3% | 31.5% | 7.1% | 53.7% |
| 8 |  IND | 3.1% | 6.5% | 31.6% | 6.7% | 53.2% |
| 9 |  LAC | 2.9% | 6.1% | 23.6% | 5.7% | 46.3% |
| 10 |  PIT | 2.2% | 4.5% | 20.8% | 3.8% | 41.8% |
| 11 |  CLE | 1.4% | 3.3% | 17.6% | 3.4% | 36.2% |
| 12 |  CIN | 1.1% | 2.6% | 13.9% | 2.2% | 30.7% |
| 13 |  MIA | 1.0% | 2.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | 23.0% |
| 14 |  LV | <1% | 0.5% | 3.8% | <1% | 10.1% |
| 15 |  TEN | <1% | <1% | 3.8% | <1% | 10.0% |
| 16 |  NYJ | <1% | 0.5% | 3.2% | <1% | 9.7% |
NFC
16 TEAMS| # | TEAM | SB | CONF | DIV | BYE | PLAYOFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DET | 7.3% | 14.4% | 40.8% | 16.6% | 69.1% |
| 2 |  LAR | 6.7% | 12.7% | 40.0% | 13.0% | 67.0% |
| 3 |  PHI | 6.1% | 12.5% | 54.4% | 14.4% | 69.8% |
| 4 |  GB | 5.2% | 10.3% | 28.1% | 10.5% | 58.5% |
| 5 |  SEA | 3.9% | 7.8% | 27.0% | 7.3% | 54.5% |
| 6 |  SF | 3.6% | 7.5% | 24.7% | 7.0% | 50.3% |
| 7 |  CHI | 2.9% | 5.3% | 14.3% | 4.7% | 38.6% |
| 8 |  TB | 2.6% | 5.4% | 36.5% | 5.4% | 48.6% |
| 9 |  MIN | 2.5% | 5.0% | 16.8% | 5.1% | 43.9% |
| 10 |  ATL | 2.3% | 5.0% | 29.3% | 3.9% | 41.0% |
| 11 |  WAS | 2.0% | 4.2% | 21.2% | 3.8% | 38.0% |
| 12 |  NO | 1.3% | 3.0% | 24.7% | 2.6% | 35.4% |
| 13 |  DAL | 1.2% | 2.5% | 14.4% | 2.1% | 27.8% |
| 14 |  ARI | 0.9% | 2.0% | 8.3% | 1.7% | 22.0% |
| 15 |  NYG | 0.7% | 1.7% | 10.0% | 1.2% | 20.2% |
| 16 |  CAR | <1% | 0.9% | 9.4% | 0.6% | 15.3% |
METHODOLOGY
Each team’s preseason strength is a pure-model prior (multi-year EPA blend with regression-to-mean shrink plus a QB adjustment). The simulator runs 10,000 brackets over the real 2026 schedule with a logistic win-probability model and home-field advantage, seeding by projected record. No betting-market input. Once games are played, live in-season power ratings replace this projection and the odds re-simulate weekly.