2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PLAYOFFS
PLAYOFF SIMULATOR
Playoff Probabilities
NE is the model's Super Bowl favorite at 31.8% — a 6.8pt edge on the field across 10,000 simulations.
NE
FINAL SB FAVORITE
31.8%
SB PROBABILITY
10K
SIMULATIONS
TOP 5 SUPER BOWL CONTENDERS
BY MONTE CARLO WIN PROBABILITY
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP FAVORITES
BY CONFERENCE WIN PROBABILITYDARK HORSES
OUTSIDE TOP 5 WITH BEST DEEP-RUN UPSIDE
AFC
16 TEAMS| # | TEAM | SB | CONF | DIV | WC | PLAYOFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NE | 31.8% | 53.2% | 76.4% | >99% | >99% |
| 2 |  BUF | 7.0% | 15.1% | 35.5% | 78.5% | >99% |
| 3 |  DEN | 6.9% | 14.4% | 38.9% | 71.6% | >99% |
| 4 |  JAX | 4.8% | 10.4% | 28.2% | 57.5% | >99% |
| 5 |  HOU | 1.9% | 5.0% | 13.4% | 42.5% | >99% |
| 6 |  LAC | <1% | 1.3% | 4.2% | 28.4% | >99% |
| 7 |  PIT | <1% | 0.6% | 3.3% | 21.5% | >99% |
| 8 |  NYJ | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 9 |  TEN | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 10 |  BAL | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 11 |  CIN | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 12 |  CLE | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 13 |  IND | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 14 |  KC | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 15 |  LV | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 16 |  MIA | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
NFC
16 TEAMS| # | TEAM | SB | CONF | DIV | WC | PLAYOFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  LA | 25.0% | 42.9% | 62.8% | 87.2% | >99% |
| 2 |  SEA | 15.0% | 33.1% | 62.6% | >99% | >99% |
| 3 |  PHI | 3.6% | 10.8% | 29.3% | 55.8% | >99% |
| 4 |  DET | 1.6% | 4.9% | 14.8% | 44.2% | >99% |
| 5 |  CHI | 1.6% | 6.5% | 21.4% | 63.9% | >99% |
| 6 |  SF | <1% | 1.3% | 6.2% | 36.1% | >99% |
| 7 |  ATL | <1% | 0.5% | 3.0% | 12.8% | >99% |
| 8 |  TB | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 9 |  ARI | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 10 |  WAS | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 11 |  CAR | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 12 |  DAL | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 13 |  GB | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 14 |  MIN | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 15 |  NO | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 16 |  NYG | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
69.0%
2025 ACCURACY
187-84
62.5%
LAST 4 WEEKS
40-24
METHODOLOGY
Each team is rated by EPA-derived power rating (net EPA per play plus win/loss record strength). The simulator runs 10,000 bracket iterations using a logistic win-probability model with home-field advantage. Seeds follow standard 14-team NFL playoff format (7 per conference, #1 seed gets first-round bye).