AFC West · #14 NET EPA · 2025 SEASON
Kansas City Chiefs
FOR 65-18 (78%)VS 11-7 (61%)ATS 36-45 (44%)362–328 PTS
FOR is our pick record when we backed this team; VS is our record when we picked against them. ATS is the team's record against the spread.
SEASON OPENER · WEEK 1
vs
Denver BroncosMON 8:15 PM
VIEW MATCHUP →vsDenver BroncosKEY INSIGHTS
DATA-DRIVEN ANALYSISOn a 3-year decline, net EPA has dropped every season since 2023.
Elite red zone efficiency, scores touchdowns on 73.7% of red zone trips.
Finished 2025 outside the picture, 0.0% playoff probability in that season's simulations. See the 2026 projection for this year's outlook.
EPA PERFORMANCE
2025 SEASON FINAL+0.055
NET EPA/PLAY
+0.035
OFF EPA/PLAY
-0.020
DEF EPA/PLAY
+0.040
PASS EPA/PLAY
+0.027
RUSH EPA/PLAY
EPA TREND
1999–2025 · 27 SEASONS+0.146
-0.021
+0.025
+0.066
+0.144
+0.045
+0.093
+0.014
-0.094
-0.133
-0.171
+0.060
-0.088
-0.251
+0.087
+0.058
+0.145
+0.048
+0.078
+0.192
+0.135
+0.138
+0.119
+0.204
+0.107
+0.059
+0.055
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| SEASON | NET EPA | OFF EPA | DEF EPA | PTS FOR | PTS AGN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +0.055 | +0.035 | -0.020 | 362 | 328 |
| 2024 | +0.059 | +0.070 | +0.011 | 385 | 326 |
| 2023 | +0.107 | +0.021 | -0.086 | 371 | 294 |
| 2022 | +0.204 | +0.186 | -0.019 | 496 | 369 |
| 2021 | +0.119 | +0.144 | +0.025 | 480 | 364 |
| 2020 | +0.138 | +0.184 | +0.045 | 473 | 362 |
| 2019 | +0.135 | +0.126 | -0.009 | 451 | 308 |
| 2018 | +0.192 | +0.243 | +0.051 | 565 | 421 |
| 2017 | +0.078 | +0.087 | +0.009 | 415 | 339 |
| 2016 | +0.048 | +0.018 | -0.030 | 389 | 311 |
| 2015 | +0.145 | +0.031 | -0.114 | 405 | 287 |
| 2014 | +0.058 | +0.029 | -0.029 | 353 | 281 |
| 2013 | +0.087 | +0.027 | -0.060 | 430 | 305 |
| 2012 | -0.251 | -0.149 | +0.101 | 211 | 425 |
| 2011 | -0.088 | -0.090 | -0.002 | 212 | 338 |
| 2010 | +0.060 | +0.031 | -0.029 | 366 | 326 |
| 2009 | -0.171 | -0.141 | +0.030 | 294 | 424 |
| 2008 | -0.133 | -0.058 | +0.075 | 291 | 440 |
| 2007 | -0.094 | -0.142 | -0.048 | 226 | 335 |
| 2006 | +0.014 | -0.006 | -0.020 | 331 | 315 |
| 2005 | +0.093 | +0.097 | +0.003 | 403 | 325 |
| 2004 | +0.045 | +0.175 | +0.131 | 483 | 435 |
| 2003 | +0.144 | +0.129 | -0.016 | 484 | 332 |
| 2002 | +0.066 | +0.163 | +0.098 | 467 | 399 |
| 2001 | +0.025 | +0.009 | -0.017 | 320 | 344 |
| 2000 | -0.021 | -0.007 | +0.014 | 313 | 344 |
| 1999 | +0.146 | -0.009 | -0.155 | 390 | 322 |
COACHING TENDENCIES
FULL RANKINGS →PASS RATE
60.2%
EARLY DOWN PASS
57.1%
SHOTGUN RATE
80.7%
NO HUDDLE
2.5%
4TH DOWN GO
26.0%
4TH DOWN CONV
75.0%
3RD DOWN CONV
38.0%
RED ZONE TD
73.7%
GOAL-TO-GO TD
68.8%
2-MIN DRILL EPA
+0.064
PTS/DRIVE
1.6
PLAYS/DRIVE
6.4
COACHING TREND
2020–2025 · 6 SEASONS| SEASON | PASS% | 4TH GO% | 3RD CONV% | RZ TD% | PTS/DRV | HALF ADJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 60.2% | 26.0% | 38.0% | 73.7% | 1.6 | +0.015 |
| 2024 | 60.0% | 15.2% | 49.3% | 90.0% | 1.8 | -0.047 |
| 2023 | 62.6% | 17.4% | 44.2% | 69.6% | 1.5 | -0.161 |
| 2022 | 62.7% | 13.2% | 49.0% | 90.9% | 2.4 | -0.084 |
| 2021 | 63.1% | 17.6% | 52.7% | 73.7% | 2.3 | -0.068 |
| 2020 | 63.0% | 17.6% | 49.5% | 87.0% | 2.4 | -0.066 |
TOP PLAYERS
ALL LEADERS →| PLAYER | POS | GP | PASS YD | RUSH YD | REC YD | TD | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 P.Mahomes | QB | 14 | 3,587 | 422 | — | 27 | 285.7 |
| K.Hunt | RB | 17 | — | 611 | 143 | 9 | 145.4 |
| I.Pacheco | RB | 13 | — | 462 | 101 | 2 | 87.3 |
| R.Rice | WR | 8 | — | 20 | 571 | 6 | 150.1 |
| M.Brown | WR | 16 | — | — | 587 | 5 | 137.7 |
| X.Worthy | WR | 14 | — | 87 | 532 | 1 | 109.9 |
| T.Kelce | TE | 17 | — | 1 | 851 | 5 | 193.2 |
HOME / AWAY
GAME RESULTS BY LOCATION · 2020–2026 · 7 SEASONSHOME
38-13
75% WIN RATE
AWAY
34-16
68% WIN RATE
NOPUNT PICK RECORD
2020–2026 · 7 SEASONS65-18
PICKS FOR
78%
FOR ACCURACY
11-7
PICKS AGAINST
61%
AGAINST ACCURACY
101
GAMES TRACKED
ATS SPLITS
WHEN WE PICK KC · 2020–2026 · 7 SEASONSHOME
18-23
43.9%
AWAY
18-22
45.0%
FAVORITE
33-43
43.4%
UNDERDOG
3-2
60.0%
S TIER
3-8
A+ TIER
7-9
A TIER
4-4
B TIER
16-19
C TIER
6-5
BY OPPONENT
MIN 2 PICKS FOR KC · 2020–2026 · 7 SEASONS
vs WAS2-0
vs NYG2-0
vs PIT2-0
vs HOU3-0
vs CLE2-0
vs CAR2-0
vs TB2-0
vs SF2-0
vs ATL2-0
vs NE2-0
vs MIA2-0
vs NYJ2-0
vs JAX2-0
vs DEN8-2
vs LV9-3
vs LAC8-4
vs TEN1-1
vs BAL1-1
vs CIN2-2
vs BUF1-1
vs PHI1-1
PICK HISTORY
NEWEST FIRST| Week | Matchup | Our Pick | Tier | Conf. | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026·W18 | LV @ KCSUN 1:00 PM | KC | FCST | 70% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W17 | KC @ LACSUN 1:00 PM | LAC | FCST | 71% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W16 | SF @ KCSUN 4:25 PM | SF | FCST | 72% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W15 | NE @ KCMON 8:15 PM | NE | FCST | 75% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W14 | KC @ CINSUN 4:25 PM | CIN | FCST | 69% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W13 | KC @ LARTHU 8:15 PM | LAR | FCST | 80% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W12 | KC @ BUFTHU 8:20 PM | BUF | A+ | 79% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W11 | ARI @ KCSUN 1:00 PM | KC | FCST | 69% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W10 | KC @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | FCST | 73% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W9 | NYJ @ KCSUN 1:00 PM | KC | FCST | 69% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W8 | KC @ DENSUN 4:25 PM | DEN | FCST | 81% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W7 | KC @ SEASUN 8:20 PM | SEA | FCST | 82% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W6 | LAC @ KCSUN 4:25 PM | LAC | B | 63% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W4 | KC @ LVSUN 4:25 PM | KC | B | 63% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W3 | KC @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | MIA | C | 65% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W2 | IND @ KCSUN 8:20 PM | IND | C | 59% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W1 | DEN @ KCMON 8:15 PM | DEN | A+ | 76% | — | PENDING |
| 2025·W18 | KC @ LVSUN 4:25 PM | KC | A | 73% | KC 12–14 LV | LOSS |
| 2025·W17 | DEN @ KCTHU 8:15 PM | DEN | B | 70% | DEN 20–13 KC | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W16 | KC @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | KC | B | 69% | KC 9–26 TEN | LOSS |
| 2025·W15 | LAC @ KCSUN 1:00 PM | KC | B | 61% | LAC 16–13 KC | LOSS |
| 2025·W14 | HOU @ KCSUN 8:20 PM | HOU | C | 50% | HOU 20–10 KC | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W13 | KC @ DALTHU 4:30 PM | DAL | C | 50% | KC 28–31 DAL | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W12 | IND @ KCSUN 1:00 PM | IND | C | 59% | IND 20–23 KC | LOSS (vs) |
| 2025·W11 | KC @ DENSUN 4:25 PM | DEN | C | 59% | KC 19–22 DEN | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W9 | KC @ BUFSUN 4:25 PM | BUF | B | 61% | KC 21–28 BUF | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W8 | WAS @ KCMON 8:15 PM | KC | A | 74% | WAS 7–28 KC | WIN |
| 2025·W7 | LV @ KCSUN 1:00 PM | KC | A+ | 76% | LV 0–31 KC | WIN |
| 2025·W6 | DET @ KCSUN 8:20 PM | DET | C | 62% | DET 17–30 KC | LOSS (vs) |
| 2025·W5 | KC @ JAXMON 8:15 PM | JAX | C | 50% | KC 28–31 JAX | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W4 | BAL @ KCSUN 4:25 PM | KC | C | 60% | BAL 20–37 KC | WIN |
| 2025·W3 | KC @ NYGSUN 8:20 PM | KC | A | 72% | KC 22–9 NYG | WIN |
| 2025·W2 | PHI @ KCSUN 4:25 PM | PHI | B | 62% | PHI 20–17 KC | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W1 | KC @ LACFRI 8:00 PM | KC | C | 60% | KC 21–27 LAC | LOSS |
| 2024·W18 | KC @ DENSUN 4:25 PM | KC | C | 62% | KC 0–38 DEN | LOSS |
| 2024·W17 | KC @ PITWED 1:00 PM | KC | B | 67% | KC 29–10 PIT | WIN |
| 2024·W16 | HOU @ KCSAT 1:00 PM | KC | A+ | 73% | HOU 19–27 KC | WIN |
| 2024·W15 | KC @ CLESUN 1:00 PM | KC | A+ | 74% | KC 21–7 CLE | WIN |
| 2024·W14 | LAC @ KCSUN 8:20 PM | KC | A | 71% | LAC 17–19 KC | WIN |
| 2024·W13 | LV @ KCFRI 3:00 PM | KC | S | 80% | LV 17–19 KC | WIN |
| 2024·W12 | KC @ CARSUN 1:00 PM | KC | A+ | 73% | KC 30–27 CAR | WIN |
| 2024·W11 | KC @ BUFSUN 4:25 PM | BUF | B | 61% | KC 21–30 BUF | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W10 | DEN @ KCSUN 1:00 PM | KC | A+ | 74% | DEN 14–16 KC | WIN |
| 2024·W9 | TB @ KCMON 8:15 PM | KC | A+ | 73% | TB 24–30 KC | WIN |
| 2024·W8 | KC @ LVSUN 4:25 PM | KC | A+ | 72% | KC 27–20 LV | WIN |
| 2024·W7 | KC @ SFSUN 4:25 PM | KC | C | 60% | KC 28–18 SF | WIN |
| 2024·W5 | NO @ KCMON 8:15 PM | KC | B | 68% | NO 13–26 KC | WIN |
| 2024·W4 | KC @ LACSUN 4:25 PM | KC | B | 69% | KC 17–10 LAC | WIN |
| 2024·W3 | KC @ ATLSUN 8:20 PM | KC | B | 65% | KC 22–17 ATL | WIN |
| 2024·W2 | CIN @ KCSUN 4:25 PM | KC | B | 69% | CIN 25–26 KC | WIN |
| 2024·W1 | BAL @ KCTHU 8:20 PM | BAL | C | 59% | BAL 20–27 KC | LOSS (vs) |
| 2023·W18 | KC @ LACSUN 4:25 PM | KC | B | 67% | KC 13–12 LAC | WIN |
| 2023·W17 | CIN @ KCSUN 4:25 PM | KC | B | 62% | CIN 17–25 KC | WIN |
| 2023·W16 | LV @ KCMON 1:00 PM | KC | B | 70% | LV 20–14 KC | LOSS |
| 2023·W15 | KC @ NESUN 1:00 PM | KC | B | 69% | KC 27–17 NE | WIN |
| 2023·W14 | BUF @ KCSUN 4:25 PM | KC | B | 60% | BUF 20–17 KC | LOSS |
| 2023·W13 | KC @ GBSUN 8:20 PM | KC | B | 65% | KC 19–27 GB | LOSS |
| 2023·W12 | KC @ LVSUN 4:25 PM | KC | B | 66% | KC 31–17 LV | WIN |
| 2023·W11 | PHI @ KCMON 8:15 PM | KC | B | 62% | PHI 21–17 KC | LOSS |
| 2023·W9 | MIA @ KCSUN 9:30 AM | KC | B | 68% | MIA 14–21 KC | WIN |
| 2023·W8 | KC @ DENSUN 4:25 PM | KC | S | 81% | KC 9–24 DEN | LOSS |
| 2023·W7 | LAC @ KCSUN 4:25 PM | KC | A+ | 77% | LAC 17–31 KC | WIN |
| 2023·W6 | DEN @ KCTHU 8:15 PM | KC | S | 86% | DEN 8–19 KC | WIN |
| 2023·W5 | KC @ MINSUN 4:25 PM | KC | B | 71% | KC 27–20 MIN | WIN |
| 2023·W4 | KC @ NYJSUN 8:20 PM | KC | S | 82% | KC 23–20 NYJ | WIN |
| 2023·W3 | CHI @ KCSUN 4:25 PM | KC | S | 86% | CHI 10–41 KC | WIN |
| 2023·W2 | KC @ JAXSUN 1:00 PM | KC | B | 64% | KC 17–9 JAX | WIN |
| 2023·W1 | DET @ KCTHU 8:20 PM | KC | B | 69% | DET 21–20 KC | LOSS |
| 2022·W18 | KC @ LVSAT 4:30 PM | KC | A | 71% | KC 31–13 LV | WIN |
| 2022·W17 | DEN @ KCSUN 1:00 PM | KC | S | 86% | DEN 24–27 KC | WIN |
| 2022·W16 | SEA @ KCSAT 1:00 PM | KC | A+ | 76% | SEA 10–24 KC | WIN |
| 2022·W15 | KC @ HOUSUN 1:00 PM | KC | S | 84% | KC 30–24 HOU | WIN |
| 2022·W14 | KC @ DENSUN 4:05 PM | KC | S | 80% | KC 34–28 DEN | WIN |
| 2022·W13 | KC @ CINSUN 4:25 PM | KC | B | 65% | KC 24–27 CIN | LOSS |
| 2022·W12 | LAR @ KCSUN 4:25 PM | KC | A+ | 77% | LAR 10–26 KC | WIN |
| 2022·W11 | KC @ LACSUN 8:20 PM | KC | B | 66% | KC 30–27 LAC | WIN |
| 2022·W10 | JAX @ KCSUN 1:00 PM | KC | A+ | 74% | JAX 17–27 KC | WIN |
| 2022·W9 | TEN @ KCSUN 8:20 PM | KC | C | 60% | TEN 17–20 KC | WIN |
| 2022·W7 | KC @ SFSUN 4:25 PM | KC | C | 60% | KC 44–23 SF | WIN |
| 2022·W6 | BUF @ KCSUN 4:25 PM | BUF | C | 57% | BUF 24–20 KC | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W5 | LV @ KCMON 8:15 PM | KC | A | 72% | LV 29–30 KC | WIN |
| 2022·W4 | KC @ TBSUN 8:20 PM | TB | C | 56% | KC 41–31 TB | LOSS (vs) |
| 2022·W3 | KC @ INDSUN 1:00 PM | KC | A | 73% | KC 17–20 IND | LOSS |
| 2022·W2 | LAC @ KCTHU 8:15 PM | KC | B | 68% | LAC 24–27 KC | WIN |
| 2022·W1 | KC @ ARISUN 4:25 PM | KC | B | 69% | KC 44–21 ARI | WIN |
| 2021·W18 | KC @ DENSAT 4:30 PM | KC | A+ | 67% | KC 28–24 DEN | WIN |
| 2021·W17 | KC @ CINSUN 1:00 PM | KC | B | 64% | KC 31–34 CIN | LOSS |
| 2021·W16 | PIT @ KCSUN 4:25 PM | KC | A+ | 67% | PIT 10–36 KC | WIN |
| 2021·W15 | KC @ LACTHU 8:20 PM | KC | B | 58% | KC 34–28 LAC | WIN |
| 2021·W14 | LV @ KCSUN 1:00 PM | KC | A | 66% | LV 9–48 KC | WIN |
| 2021·W13 | DEN @ KCSUN 8:20 PM | KC | B | 62% | DEN 9–22 KC | WIN |
| 2021·W11 | DAL @ KCSUN 4:25 PM | KC | C | 51% | DAL 9–19 KC | WIN |
| 2021·W10 | KC @ LVSUN 8:20 PM | KC | B | 56% | KC 41–14 LV | WIN |
| 2021·W9 | GB @ KCSUN 4:25 PM | GB | B | 61% | GB 7–13 KC | LOSS (vs) |
| 2021·W8 | NYG @ KCMON 8:15 PM | KC | B | 61% | NYG 17–20 KC | WIN |
| 2021·W7 | KC @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | C | 51% | KC 3–27 TEN | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W6 | KC @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | KC | B | 57% | KC 31–13 WAS | WIN |
| 2021·W5 | BUF @ KCSUN 8:20 PM | BUF | B | 59% | BUF 38–20 KC | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W4 | KC @ PHISUN 1:00 PM | KC | B | 64% | KC 42–30 PHI | WIN |
| 2021·W3 | LAC @ KCSUN 1:00 PM | KC | B | 61% | LAC 30–24 KC | LOSS |
| 2021·W2 | KC @ BALSUN 8:20 PM | KC | C | 50% | KC 35–36 BAL | LOSS |
| 2021·W1 | CLE @ KCSUN 4:25 PM | KC | B | 59% | CLE 29–33 KC | WIN |
| 2020·W17 | LAC @ KCSUN 4:25 PM | KC | A+ | 70% | LAC 38–21 KC | LOSS |
| 2020·W16 | ATL @ KCSUN 1:00 PM | KC | S | 73% | ATL 14–17 KC | WIN |
| 2020·W15 | KC @ NOSUN 4:25 PM | NO | C | 50% | KC 32–29 NO | LOSS (vs) |
| 2020·W14 | KC @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | KC | B | 57% | KC 33–27 MIA | WIN |
| 2020·W13 | DEN @ KCSUN 8:20 PM | KC | A+ | 71% | DEN 16–22 KC | WIN |
| 2020·W12 | KC @ TBSUN 4:25 PM | KC | B | 58% | KC 27–24 TB | WIN |
| 2020·W11 | KC @ LVSUN 8:20 PM | KC | C | 54% | KC 35–31 LV | WIN |
| 2020·W9 | CAR @ KCSUN 1:00 PM | KC | S | 73% | CAR 31–33 KC | WIN |
| 2020·W8 | NYJ @ KCSUN 1:00 PM | KC | S | 76% | NYJ 9–35 KC | WIN |
| 2020·W7 | KC @ DENSUN 4:25 PM | KC | C | 58% | KC 43–16 DEN | WIN |
| 2020·W6 | KC @ BUFMON 5:00 PM | KC | C | 54% | KC 26–17 BUF | WIN |
| 2020·W5 | LV @ KCSUN 1:00 PM | KC | A+ | 70% | LV 40–32 KC | LOSS |
| 2020·W4 | NE @ KCMON 7:05 PM | KC | B | 58% | NE 10–26 KC | WIN |
| 2020·W3 | KC @ BALMON 8:15 PM | BAL | B | 60% | KC 34–20 BAL | LOSS (vs) |
| 2020·W2 | KC @ LACSUN 4:25 PM | KC | B | 62% | KC 23–20 LAC | WIN |
| 2020·W1 | HOU @ KCTHU 8:20 PM | KC | A+ | 62% | HOU 20–34 KC | WIN |