LAC @ KC – Week 2 2022
LAC
KC
LAC
AWAY
24@27
KC BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 2
2022 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
Model confidence: KC 68%Our line: KC -6.1
KC
PICK SIDE
-4.0
MARKET SPREAD
-6.1
OUR LINE
-208
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.001Net EPA / play+0.204
+0.007Offense EPA / play+0.186
+0.006Defense EPA / play-0.019
44.1%Offense success %50.4%
43.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 6.1. Actual: 3. Off by 3.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LAC | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +167 | -188 |
| Our fair price | +208 | -208 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD KC -4.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.56
OUR NUMBER
68%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
64%
DIFFERENCE
+4%
Both figures are for KC. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
KC
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
LAC
Austin Ekeler
RB
372.7 SEASON PPR
Justin Herbert
QB
281.3 SEASON PPR
Mike Williams
WR
176.5 SEASON PPR
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles ChargersPASSING
Justin Herbert4739 yd · 25 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Austin Ekeler915 yd · 13 TD
Joshua Kelley287 yd · 2 TD
Justin Herbert147 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Mike Williams63 rec · 895 yd · 4 TD
Josh Palmer72 rec · 769 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@KCW15 2025 | LAC 16, KC 13 | KC | L |
| KC@LACW1 2025 | KC 21, LAC 27 | KC | L |
| LAC@KCW14 2024 | LAC 17, KC 19 | KC | W |
| KC@LACW4 2024 | KC 17, LAC 10 | KC | W |
| KC@LACW18 2023 | KC 13, LAC 12 | KC | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs KC
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 6.1. The market has KC at -4.0.
Week 2 of the 2022 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 16, KC 13 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Kansas City Chiefs: LAC +0.001 against KC +0.204.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
