Commanders vs Lions – Week 2 2022
WAS
DET
WAS
AWAY
27@36
DET BY 9
FINAL · WEEK 2
2022 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 27, Detroit Lions 36.
Going in, our model had favored Washington Commanders at 64% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Lions.
Model confidence: WAS 64%Our line: WAS -4.8
ODDS
SPREAD
WAS -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
WAS -4.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
WAS · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
WAS · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
52%
DIFFERENCE
+12%
| SOURCE | WAS | DET | WAS WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -114 | +103 | 52.0% |
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.003Net EPA / play-0.006
-0.078 (26)Offense EPA / play+0.072 (6)
-0.075 (4)Defense EPA / play+0.078 (30)
40.4% (28)Offense success %45.6% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS B-tier pick misses. DET takes it.
MISSED
Model picked WAS but DET won. Projected margin was 4.8, the model overestimated by 13.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DET
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
WAS
Terry McLaurin
WR
229.0 SEASON PPR
Curtis Samuel
WR
176.3 SEASON PPR
Antonio Gibson
RB
165.9 SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
Taylor Heinicke1859 yd · 12 TD · 6 INT
RECEIVING
Terry McLaurin77 rec · 1191 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@WASW10 2025 | DET 44, WAS 22 | DET | W |
| WAS@DETW10 2020 | WAS 27, DET 30 | DET | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs DET
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project WAS by 4.8. The market has WAS at -1.0.
Detroit Lions won, WAS 27, DET 36. Our model had favored Washington Commanders at 64% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Washington Commanders at -1.0, meaning the book expects Washington Commanders to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 2, the Detroit Lions were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 44, WAS 22 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Washington Commanders: WAS -0.003 against DET -0.006.
