CHI @ GB – Week 2 2022
CHI
GB
CHI
AWAY
10@27
GB BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 2
2022 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
Model confidence: GB 67%Our line: GB -6.0
GB
PICK SIDE
-10.5
MARKET SPREAD
-6.0
OUR LINE
-203
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.164Net EPA / play-0.034
-0.046Offense EPA / play+0.003
+0.118Defense EPA / play+0.037
40.5%Offense success %45.8%
48.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 6.0. Actual: 17. Off by 11.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CHI | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +348 | -420 |
| Our fair price | +203 | -203 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD GB -10.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.22
OUR NUMBER
67%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
78%
DIFFERENCE
-11%
Both figures are for GB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GB
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CHI
Justin Fields
QB
296.0 SEASON PPR
David Montgomery
RB
177.7 SEASON PPR
Cole Kmet
TE
147.3 SEASON PPR
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
Justin Fields2242 yd · 17 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Justin Fields1143 yd · 8 TD
David Montgomery801 yd · 5 TD
Khalil Herbert731 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
Cole Kmet50 rec · 544 yd · 7 TD
Darnell Mooney40 rec · 493 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@CHIW16 2025 | GB 16, CHI 22 | CHI | W |
| CHI@GBW14 2025 | CHI 21, GB 28 | GB | W |
| CHI@GBW18 2024 | CHI 24, GB 22 | GB | L |
| GB@CHIW11 2024 | GB 20, CHI 19 | GB | W |
| CHI@GBW18 2023 | CHI 9, GB 17 | GB | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs GB
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 6.0. The market has GB at -10.5.
Week 2 of the 2022 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Chicago Bears, GB 16, CHI 22 in Week 16 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Green Bay Packers: CHI -0.164 against GB -0.034.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
