MIA @ BAL – Week 2 2022
MIA
BAL
MIA
AWAY
42@38
MIA BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 2
2022 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
Model confidence: MIA 66%Our line: MIA -5.7
MIA
PICK SIDE
+3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-5.7
OUR LINE
-196
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.039Net EPA / play+0.019
+0.047Offense EPA / play+0.004
+0.008Defense EPA / play-0.014
44.5%Offense success %45.3%
42.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIA by 5.7. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 1.7 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIA | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +148 | -164 |
| Our fair price | -196 | +196 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIA +3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.54
OUR NUMBER
66%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
39%
DIFFERENCE
+27%
Both figures are for MIA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
BAL
Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
MIA
Tyreek Hill
WR
341.2 SEASON PPR
Jaylen Waddle
WR
259.2 SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
230.9 SEASON PPR
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Tua Tagovailoa3548 yd · 25 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Raheem Mostert891 yd · 3 TD
Jeff Wilson392 yd · 3 TD
Chase Edmonds120 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Tyreek Hill119 rec · 1710 yd · 7 TD
Jaylen Waddle75 rec · 1356 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@MIAW9 2025 | BAL 28, MIA 6 | BAL | W |
| MIA@BALW17 2023 | MIA 19, BAL 56 | BAL | W |
| BAL@MIAW10 2021 | BAL 10, MIA 22 | BAL | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs BAL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 5.7. The market has MIA at +3.0.
Week 2 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 28, MIA 6 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA +0.039 against BAL +0.019.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
