SEA @ SF – Week 2 2022
SEA
SF
SEA
AWAY
7@27
SF BY 20
FINAL · WEEK 2
2022 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
Model confidence: SF 60%Our line: SF -3.3
SF
PICK SIDE
-8.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.3
OUR LINE
-147
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.023Net EPA / play+0.211
-0.003Offense EPA / play+0.085
+0.020Defense EPA / play-0.126
44.2%Offense success %46.2%
41.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 3.3. Actual: 20. Off by 16.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | SEA | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +318 | -379 |
| Our fair price | +147 | -147 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD SF -8.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.29
OUR NUMBER
60%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
77%
DIFFERENCE
-17%
Both figures are for SF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
SF
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
SEA
Geno Smith
QB
303.9 SEASON PPR
Tyler Lockett
WR
239.3 SEASON PPR
DK Metcalf
WR
226.8 SEASON PPR
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Seattle SeahawksPASSING
Geno Smith4282 yd · 30 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Kenneth Walker III1050 yd · 9 TD
Geno Smith366 yd · 1 TD
Rashaad Penny346 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
DK Metcalf90 rec · 1048 yd · 6 TD
Tyler Lockett84 rec · 1033 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@SFW18 2025 | SEA 13, SF 3 | SF | L |
| SF@SEAW1 2025 | SF 17, SEA 13 | SEA | L |
| SEA@SFW11 2024 | SEA 20, SF 17 | SF | L |
| SF@SEAW6 2024 | SF 36, SEA 24 | SF | W |
| SEA@SFW14 2023 | SEA 16, SF 28 | SF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs SF
QUESTIONS
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 3.3. The market has SF at -8.5.
Week 2 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, SEA 13, SF 3 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, San Francisco 49ers: SEA -0.023 against SF +0.211.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
