TEN @ BUF – Week 2 2022
TEN
BUF
TEN
AWAY
7@41
BUF BY 34
FINAL · WEEK 2
2022 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 65%Our line: BUF -5.2
BUF
PICK SIDE
-10.0
MARKET SPREAD
-5.2
OUR LINE
-186
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.064Net EPA / play+0.168
-0.059Offense EPA / play+0.116
+0.004Defense EPA / play-0.052
41.1%Offense success %49.0%
42.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 5.2. Actual: 34. Off by 28.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 24.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TEN | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +329 | -395 |
| Our fair price | +186 | -186 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BUF -10.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.24
OUR NUMBER
65%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
77%
DIFFERENCE
-12%
Both figures are for BUF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
BUF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TEN
Derrick Henry
RB
302.8 SEASON PPR
Ryan Tannehill
QB
161.2 SEASON PPR
Robert Woods
WR
117.7 SEASON PPR
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Ryan Tannehill2536 yd · 13 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
Derrick Henry1538 yd · 13 TD
Dontrell Hilliard145 yd · 0 TD
Malik Willis123 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Robert Woods53 rec · 527 yd · 2 TD
Chig Okonkwo32 rec · 450 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@BUFW7 2024 | TEN 10, BUF 34 | BUF | W |
| BUF@TENW6 2021 | BUF 31, TEN 34 | BUF | L |
| BUF@TENW5 2020 | BUF 16, TEN 42 | TEN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs BUF
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 5.2. The market has BUF at -10.0.
Week 2 of the 2022 season, MON 7:15 PM.
Buffalo Bills, TEN 10, BUF 34 in Week 7 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Buffalo Bills: TEN -0.064 against BUF +0.168.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
