Titans vs Bills – Week 2 2022
TEN
BUF
TEN
AWAY
7@41
BUF BY 34
FINAL · WEEK 2
2022 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 7, Buffalo Bills 41.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Titans, 2 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 65%Our line: BUF -5.2
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -10.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -5.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
BUF · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
78%
DIFFERENCE
-13%
| SOURCE | TEN | BUF | BUF WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +329 | -395 | 78.2% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.064Net EPA / play+0.168
-0.059 (25)Offense EPA / play+0.116 (2)
+0.004 (18)Defense EPA / play-0.052 (7)
41.1% (22)Offense success %49.0% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 5.2. Actual: 34. Off by 28.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 24.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
BUF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Ryan Tannehill2536 yd · 13 TD · 6 INT
RECEIVING
Robert Woods53 rec · 527 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@BUFW7 2024 | TEN 10, BUF 34 | BUF | W |
| BUF@TENW6 2021 | BUF 31, TEN 34 | BUF | L |
| BUF@TENW5 2020 | BUF 16, TEN 42 | TEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 5.2. The market has BUF at -10.0.
Buffalo Bills won, TEN 7, BUF 41. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -10.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 10.0 points.
In Week 2, the Tennessee Titans were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2022 season, MON 7:15 PM.
Buffalo Bills, TEN 10, BUF 34 in Week 7 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Buffalo Bills: TEN -0.064 against BUF +0.168.
