2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TEN @ BUF – Week 7 2024
TEN
BUF
TEN
AWAY
10@34
BUF +24
FINAL · WEEK 7
2024 SEASON
BUF
HOME
TIER S
PICK: BUF
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: BUF 79%Projected margin: 10.4
BUF
PICK SIDE
-9.5
SPREAD
10.4
PROJ MARGIN
-392
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 10.4. Actual: 24. Off by 13.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -9.5 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -392 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -535 | Won · +$0.26 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TEN
divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
66°F
WIND
12 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
TEN
T.Pollard
RB
200.7SEASON PPR
C.Ridley
WR
199.2SEASON PPR
N.Westbrook-Ikhine
WR
135.7SEASON PPR
BUF
J.Allen
QB
372.3SEASON PPR
J.Cook
RB
266.7SEASON PPR
K.Shakir
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@BUFW2 2022 | TEN 7, BUF 41 | BUF | W |
| BUF@TENW6 2021 | BUF 31, TEN 34 | BUF | L |
| BUF@TENW5 2020 | BUF 16, TEN 42 | TEN | W |
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES