Titans vs Bills – Week 7 2024
TEN
BUF
TEN
AWAY
10@34
BUF BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 7
2024 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 10, Buffalo Bills 34.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 79% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Titans, 1 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 79%Our line: BUF -10.7
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -9.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -10.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.146Net EPA / play+0.197
-0.116 (30)Offense EPA / play+0.189 (2)
+0.030 (21)Defense EPA / play-0.009 (12)
39.9% (29)Offense success %47.5% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 10.7. Actual: 24. Off by 13.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
66°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@BUFW2 2022 | TEN 7, BUF 41 | BUF | W |
| BUF@TENW6 2021 | BUF 31, TEN 34 | BUF | L |
| BUF@TENW5 2020 | BUF 16, TEN 42 | TEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 79% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project BUF by 10.7. The market has BUF at -9.5.
Buffalo Bills won, TEN 10, BUF 34. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 79% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -9.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 9.5 points.
In Week 7, the Tennessee Titans were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 4.8 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, TEN 7, BUF 41 in Week 2 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Buffalo Bills: TEN -0.146 against BUF +0.197.
