Seahawks vs Falcons – Week 7 2024
SEA
ATL
SEA
AWAY
34@14
SEA BY 20
FINAL · WEEK 7
2024 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Seattle Seahawks 34, Atlanta Falcons 14.
Going in, our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Seahawks, 2 Falcons.
Model confidence: ATL 65%Our line: ATL -5.0
ODDS
SPREAD
ATL -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ATL -5.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ATL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.018Net EPA / play-0.027
-0.030 (19)Offense EPA / play+0.034 (13)
-0.012 (11)Defense EPA / play+0.061 (27)
43.9% (16)Offense success %48.1% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL C-tier pick misses. SEA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ATL but SEA won. Projected margin was 5.0, the model overestimated by 25.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 23.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
home_underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
ATL
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@ATLW14 2025 | SEA 37, ATL 9 | SEA | W |
| ATL@SEAW3 2022 | ATL 27, SEA 23 | SEA | L |
| SEA@ATLW1 2020 | SEA 38, ATL 25 | ATL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs ATL
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 65% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project ATL by 5.0. The market has ATL at -3.0.
Seattle Seahawks won, SEA 34, ATL 14. Our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Atlanta Falcons at -3.0, meaning the book expects Atlanta Falcons to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 7, the Seattle Seahawks were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Atlanta Falcons were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.2, 5.3 below the market.
Week 7 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, SEA 37, ATL 9 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Seattle Seahawks: SEA -0.018 against ATL -0.027.
