Broncos vs Saints – Week 7 2024
DEN
NO
DEN
AWAY
33@10
DEN BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 7
2024 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 33, New Orleans Saints 10.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Broncos, 6 Saints.
Model confidence: NO 60%Our line: NO -3.3
ODDS
SPREAD
NO +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -3.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
+0.138Net EPA / play-0.101
+0.020 (14)Offense EPA / play-0.057 (25)
-0.118 (1)Defense EPA / play+0.044 (24)
42.7% (17)Offense success %40.6% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO C-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but DEN won. Projected margin was 3.3, the model overestimated by 26.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 20.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NO
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs NO
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project NO by 3.3. The market has NO at +2.5.
Denver Broncos won, DEN 33, NO 10. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New Orleans Saints at +2.5, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 7, the Denver Broncos were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New Orleans Saints were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 37.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.9, 9.9 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2024 season, THU 8:15 PM.
New Orleans Saints, NO 31, DEN 3 in Week 12 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Denver Broncos: DEN +0.138 against NO -0.101.
