2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DEN @ NO – Week 7 2024
DEN
NO
DEN
AWAY
33@10
DEN +23
FINAL · WEEK 7
2024 SEASON
NO
HOME
TIER C
PICK: NO
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: NO 60%Projected margin: 0.8
NO
PICK SIDE
+2.5
SPREAD
0.8
PROJ MARGIN
+143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NO C-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but DEN won. Projected margin was 0.8 -- the model overestimated by 23.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 20.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.5 | NO market line | |
| MODEL ML | +143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +124 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DEN
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NO
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEN
B.Nix
QB
317.2SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
240.3SEASON PPR
J.Williams
RB
157.9SEASON PPR
NO
A.Kamara
RB
265.3SEASON PPR
D.Carr
QB
150.9SEASON PPR
J.Johnson
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@DENW12 2020 | NO 31, DEN 3 | NO | W |
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES