Dolphins vs Colts – Week 7 2024
MIA
IND
MIA
AWAY
10@16
IND BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 7
2024 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 10, Indianapolis Colts 16.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Dolphins, 2 Colts.
Model confidence: IND 61%Our line: IND -3.6
ODDS
SPREAD
IND -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -3.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.017Net EPA / play-0.061
-0.039 (21)Offense EPA / play-0.057 (24)
-0.022 (9)Defense EPA / play+0.004 (13)
44.3% (15)Offense success %40.2% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected IND by 3.6. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 2.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
No noteworthy trends
IND
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@INDW1 2025 | MIA 8, IND 33 | IND | W |
| IND@MIAW4 2021 | IND 27, MIA 17 | IND | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs IND
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 61% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project IND by 3.6. The market has IND at -3.0.
Indianapolis Colts won, MIA 10, IND 16. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at -3.0, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 7, the Miami Dolphins were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.5, 0.5 below the market.
Week 7 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, MIA 8, IND 33 in Week 1 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA -0.017 against IND -0.061.
