2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIA @ IND – Week 7 2024
MIA
IND
MIA
AWAY
10@16
IND +6
FINAL · WEEK 7
2024 SEASON
IND
HOME
TIER C
PICK: IND
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: IND 61%Projected margin: 1.6
IND
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
1.6
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked IND. Projected margin: 1.6. Actual: 6. Off by 4.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -155 | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIA
No noteworthy trends
IND
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
MIA
D.Achane
RB
299.9SEASON PPR
J.Smith
TE
222.3SEASON PPR
T.Hill
WR
218.2SEASON PPR
IND
J.Taylor
RB
246.7SEASON PPR
J.Downs
WR
182.2SEASON PPR
M.Pittman
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@INDW1 2025 | MIA 8, IND 33 | IND | W |
| IND@MIAW4 2021 | IND 27, MIA 17 | IND | W |
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES