Jets vs Steelers – Week 7 2024
NYJ
PIT
NYJ
AWAY
15@37
PIT BY 22
FINAL · WEEK 7
2024 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 15, Pittsburgh Steelers 37.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Jets, 4 Steelers.
Model confidence: PIT 71%Our line: PIT -7.5
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -7.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.037Net EPA / play-0.016
-0.013 (17)Offense EPA / play-0.034 (20)
+0.024 (20)Defense EPA / play-0.018 (10)
42.6% (18)Offense success %40.4% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PIT. Projected margin: 7.5. Actual: 22. Off by 14.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 25.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
PIT
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
60°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@NYJW1 2025 | PIT 34, NYJ 32 | PIT | W |
| NYJ@PITW4 2022 | NYJ 24, PIT 20 | PIT | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs PIT
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 71% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project PIT by 7.5. The market has PIT at +3.0.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, NYJ 15, PIT 37. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at +3.0, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 7, the New York Jets were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.2, 4.2 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2024 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT 34, NYJ 32 in Week 1 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: NYJ -0.037 against PIT -0.016.
