Ravens vs Buccaneers – Week 7 2024
BAL
TB
BAL
AWAY
41@31
BAL BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 7
2024 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 41, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Ravens, 4 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: BAL 63%Our line: BAL -4.5
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -4.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
+0.269Net EPA / play+0.115
+0.218 (1)Offense EPA / play+0.130 (5)
-0.051 (8)Defense EPA / play+0.015 (17)
50.0% (2)Offense success %49.5% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 4.5. Actual: 10. Off by 5.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
TB
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs TB
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 4.5. The market has BAL at -4.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, BAL 41, TB 31. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -4.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 7, the Baltimore Ravens were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 4.5 below the market.
Week 7 of the 2024 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 27, TB 22 in Week 8 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.269 against TB +0.115.
