2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BAL @ TB – Week 7 2024
BAL
TB
BAL
AWAY
41@31
BAL +10
FINAL · WEEK 7
2024 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BAL
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: BAL 63%Projected margin: -1.9
BAL
PICK SIDE
-4.5
SPREAD
-1.9
PROJ MARGIN
-191
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 1.9. Actual: 10. Off by 8.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.5 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -191 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -225 | Won · +$0.52 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
TB
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
BAL
L.Jackson
QB
430.4SEASON PPR
D.Henry
RB
336.4SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
209.5SEASON PPR
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
365.8SEASON PPR
B.Irving
RB
244.4SEASON PPR
M.Evans
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@TBW8 2022 | BAL 27, TB 22 | TB | L |
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES