Chiefs vs 49ers – Week 7 2024
KC
SF
KC
AWAY
28@18
KC BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 7
2024 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 28, San Francisco 49ers 18.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Chiefs, 3 49ers.
Model confidence: KC 60%Our line: KC -3.5
ODDS
SPREAD
KC +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -3.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
+0.059Net EPA / play+0.028
+0.070 (9)Offense EPA / play+0.069 (10)
+0.011 (16)Defense EPA / play+0.041 (23)
47.6% (6)Offense success %46.1% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 3.5. Actual: 10. Off by 6.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 12.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
SF
road_favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
78°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs SF
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project KC by 3.5. The market has KC at +2.5.
Kansas City Chiefs won, KC 28, SF 18. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at +2.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 7, the Kansas City Chiefs were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 1.7 below the market.
Week 7 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, KC 44, SF 23 in Week 7 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.059 against SF +0.028.
