2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
KC @ SF – Week 7 2024
KC
SF
KC
AWAY
28@18
KC +10
FINAL · WEEK 7
2024 SEASON
SF
HOME
TIER C
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: KC 60%Projected margin: -1.3
KC
PICK SIDE
+2.5
SPREAD
-1.3
PROJ MARGIN
+143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 1.3. Actual: 10. Off by 8.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 12.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.5 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | +143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +120 | Won · +$1.43 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
KC
divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
SF
road_favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
78°F
WIND
3 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
KC
P.Mahomes
QB
283.0SEASON PPR
T.Kelce
TE
195.4SEASON PPR
X.Worthy
WR
187.2SEASON PPR
SF
B.Purdy
QB
266.9SEASON PPR
G.Kittle
TE
236.6SEASON PPR
J.Jennings
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES