Texans vs Packers – Week 7 2024
HOU
GB
HOU
AWAY
22@24
GB BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 7
2024 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 22, Green Bay Packers 24.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Texans, 1 Packers.
Model confidence: GB 67%Our line: GB -5.9
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -5.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
+0.015Net EPA / play+0.146
-0.050 (22)Offense EPA / play+0.079 (8)
-0.065 (5)Defense EPA / play-0.067 (4)
38.8% (31)Offense success %44.9% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 5.9. Actual: 2. Off by 3.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GB
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
72°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs GB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 5.9. The market has GB at -3.0.
Green Bay Packers won, HOU 22, GB 24. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -3.0, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 7, the Houston Texans were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Green Bay Packers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 1.5 below the market.
Week 7 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 35, HOU 20 in Week 7 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Green Bay Packers: HOU +0.015 against GB +0.146.
