2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
HOU @ GB – Week 7 2024
HOU
GB
HOU
AWAY
22@24
GB +2
FINAL · WEEK 7
2024 SEASON
GB
HOME
TIER B
PICK: GB
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: GB 67%Projected margin: 3.9
GB
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
3.9
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected GB by 3.9. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 1.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | GB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -170 | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GB
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
72°F
WIND
3 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
HOU
J.Mixon
RB
240.5SEASON PPR
C.Stroud
QB
220.4SEASON PPR
N.Collins
WR
210.6SEASON PPR
GB
J.Jacobs
RB
293.1SEASON PPR
J.Love
QB
233.9SEASON PPR
J.Reed
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@HOUW7 2020 | GB 35, HOU 20 | GB | W |
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES