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POWER
NFL POWER RANKINGS

Preseason Power

BUF open 2026 atop the model at +0.094 net rating, 10.3 projected wins. Live EPA takes over after Week 1.

BUF
TOP RATED · +0.094
BUF
SB FAVORITE · 10.9%
+0.199
#1-TO-#32 GAP
2026 SEASON · WEEK 0 · MODEL PRIOR · SWITCHES TO LIVE EPA AFTER WEEK 1
WEEK 0
No games have been played yet, so these are the model’s pre-snap projections, a Monte Carlo prior over the real 2026 schedule. The board re-ranks from live play-by-play EPA every Tuesday once the season kicks off. See the full 2026 season outlook for per-team projections.

TOP 5 TEAMS

RANKED BY MODEL NET RATING
#1
Buffalo Bills
BUF
+0.094
NET RATING
10.3
PROJ W
10.9%
SB
#2
Los Angeles Rams
LAR
+0.074
NET RATING
9.9
PROJ W
6.7%
SB
#3
Detroit Lions
DET
+0.070
NET RATING
10.2
PROJ W
7.3%
SB
#4
Philadelphia Eagles
PHI
+0.060
NET RATING
10.1
PROJ W
6.1%
SB
#5
Green Bay Packers
GB
+0.058
NET RATING
9.5
PROJ W
5.2%
SB

FULL RANKINGS

ALL 32 TEAMS · 2026 PRESEASON
#TEAMNET RATINGPROJ WINSPLAYOFF %SB %SOSVEGAS O/U2025
1
Buffalo Bills
BUF
Buffalo Bills
+0.09410.3 7–1377.710.9+0.01110.512-5
2
Los Angeles Rams
LAR
Los Angeles Rams
+0.0749.9 7–1367.06.7+0.01611.512-5
3
Detroit Lions
DET
Detroit Lions
+0.07010.2 7–1369.17.3-0.00310.59-8
4
Philadelphia Eagles
PHI
Philadelphia Eagles
+0.06010.1 7–1369.86.1-0.00510.511-6
5
Green Bay Packers
GB
Green Bay Packers
+0.0589.5 6–1358.55.2+0.0149.59-8
6
Denver Broncos
DEN
Denver Broncos
+0.0569.8 7–1368.05.1+0.0029.514-3
7
Baltimore Ravens
BAL
Baltimore Ravens
+0.0539.9 7–1368.46.3-0.00711.58-9
8
New England Patriots
NE
New England Patriots
+0.0499.3 6–1259.64.8+0.01110.514-3
9
Seattle Seahawks
SEA
Seattle Seahawks
+0.0439.3 6–1254.53.9+0.01010.514-3
10
San Francisco 49ers
SF
San Francisco 49ers
+0.0359.1 6–1250.33.6+0.0109.512-5
11
Kansas City Chiefs
KC
Kansas City Chiefs
+0.0349.1 6–1254.94.0+0.00610.56-11
12
Houston Texans
HOU
Houston Texans
+0.0339.1 6–1256.63.7+0.0039.512-5
13
Minnesota Vikings
MIN
Minnesota Vikings
+0.0258.8 6–1243.92.5+0.0168.59-8
14
Jacksonville Jaguars
JAX
Jacksonville Jaguars
+0.0259.0 6–1253.73.4+0.0008.513-4
15
Los Angeles Chargers
LAC
Los Angeles Chargers
+0.0238.6 5–1246.32.9+0.0149.511-6
16
Indianapolis Colts
IND
Indianapolis Colts
+0.0199.0 6–1253.23.1-0.0057.58-9
17
Chicago Bears
CHI
Chicago Bears
+0.0158.4 5–1238.62.9+0.0229.511-6
18
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
+0.0138.8 6–1248.62.6+0.0048.58-9
19
Pittsburgh Steelers
PIT
Pittsburgh Steelers
+0.0038.4 5–1241.82.2+0.0038.510-7
20
Atlanta Falcons
ATL
Atlanta Falcons
-0.0018.4 5–1241.02.3+0.0056.58-9
21
Washington Commanders
WAS
Washington Commanders
-0.0038.4 5–1238.02.0+0.0057.55-12
22
Dallas Cowboys
DAL
Dallas Cowboys
-0.0197.8 5–1127.81.2+0.0149.57-10
23
New Orleans Saints
NO
New Orleans Saints
-0.0248.2 5–1135.41.3-0.0067.56-11
24
Cincinnati Bengals
CIN
Cincinnati Bengals
-0.0287.9 5–1130.71.1-0.00410.56-11
25
Arizona Cardinals
ARI
Arizona Cardinals
-0.0307.5 4–1122.00.9+0.0163.53-14
26
Cleveland Browns
CLE
Cleveland Browns
-0.0308.1 5–1136.21.4-0.0165.55-12
27
Miami Dolphins
MIA
Miami Dolphins
-0.0417.1 4–1023.01.0+0.0193.57-10
28
New York Giants
NYG
New York Giants
-0.0457.2 4–1020.20.7+0.0117.54-13
29
Carolina Panthers
CAR
Carolina Panthers
-0.0636.6 4–1015.30.4+0.0187.58-9
30
Las Vegas Raiders
LV
Las Vegas Raiders
-0.0906.1 3–910.10.2+0.0125.53-14
31
New York Jets
NYJ
New York Jets
-0.0926.1 3–99.70.2+0.0145.53-14
32
Tennessee Titans
TEN
Tennessee Titans
-0.1056.0 3–910.00.2+0.0026.53-14
METHODOLOGY
Net rating = projected offensive EPA/play minus defensive EPA/play, each an exponential-decay multi-year blend with regression-to-mean shrink plus a QB adjustment. Projected wins, playoff %, and Super Bowl % come from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the real 2026 schedule. No polls and no betting-market input, the Vegas over/under (DraftKings) is shown only for context. Live play-by-play EPA replaces this projection once the season begins.
26
2026 SEASON OUTLOOK
Per-team projections
PO
PLAYOFF ODDS
Projected field + Super Bowl
VS
COMPARE TEAMS
Head-to-head projections
Model’s boldest call vs the market: ARI at 7.5 projected wins vs a 3.5 Vegas total (+4.0). Divergence, not a bet.

FREQUENTLY ASKED

QUESTIONS
Buffalo Bills open the 2026 season atop NoPunt's model power rankings with a projected net rating of +0.094 per play and 10.3 projected wins.
From our pure Monte Carlo model prior, each team's offensive and defensive EPA/play is an exp-decay multi-year blend with regression-to-mean shrink, plus a QB adjustment, then 10,000 simulations of the real 2026 schedule. No polls, no betting-market input.
The Tuesday after Week 1. Once games are played, the board re-ranks every week from actual play-by-play EPA, replacing the preseason projection.
The rating is net EPA per play, how efficiently the model expects a team to play. Projected wins run that rating through the actual schedule 10,000 times. A strong team with a brutal schedule can rank high on rating but lower on wins.