AFC East · #25 NET EPA · 2025 SEASON
Miami Dolphins
FOR 42-13 (76%)VS 34-12 (74%)ATS 34-21 (62%)347–424 PTS
FOR is our pick record when we backed this team; VS is our record when we picked against them. ATS is the team's record against the spread.
SEASON OPENER · WEEK 1
@
Las Vegas RaidersSUN 4:25 PM
VIEW MATCHUP →@Las Vegas RaidersKEY INSIGHTS
DATA-DRIVEN ANALYSISNet EPA dropped -0.088 from 2024, a notable regression.
On a 3-year decline, net EPA has dropped every season since 2023.
Elite red zone efficiency, scores touchdowns on 80.0% of red zone trips.
Finished 2025 outside the picture, 0.0% playoff probability in that season's simulations. See the 2026 projection for this year's outlook.
EPA PERFORMANCE
2025 SEASON FINAL-0.105
NET EPA/PLAY
-0.017
OFF EPA/PLAY
+0.088
DEF EPA/PLAY
-0.009
PASS EPA/PLAY
-0.026
RUSH EPA/PLAY
EPA TREND
1999–2025 · 27 SEASONS-0.005
+0.085
+0.050
+0.108
+0.035
-0.133
+0.003
-0.002
-0.164
+0.089
-0.035
-0.052
-0.025
-0.083
-0.051
+0.006
-0.087
+0.001
-0.158
-0.161
-0.232
+0.048
-0.031
+0.039
+0.136
-0.017
-0.105
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| SEASON | NET EPA | OFF EPA | DEF EPA | PTS FOR | PTS AGN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -0.105 | -0.017 | +0.088 | 347 | 424 |
| 2024 | -0.017 | -0.039 | -0.022 | 345 | 364 |
| 2023 | +0.136 | +0.097 | -0.039 | 496 | 391 |
| 2022 | +0.039 | +0.047 | +0.008 | 397 | 399 |
| 2021 | -0.031 | -0.059 | -0.028 | 341 | 373 |
| 2020 | +0.048 | +0.007 | -0.041 | 404 | 338 |
| 2019 | -0.232 | -0.103 | +0.129 | 306 | 494 |
| 2018 | -0.161 | -0.106 | +0.055 | 319 | 433 |
| 2017 | -0.158 | -0.125 | +0.033 | 281 | 393 |
| 2016 | +0.001 | +0.012 | +0.010 | 363 | 380 |
| 2015 | -0.087 | -0.029 | +0.057 | 310 | 389 |
| 2014 | +0.006 | +0.005 | -0.001 | 388 | 373 |
| 2013 | -0.051 | -0.043 | +0.008 | 317 | 335 |
| 2012 | -0.083 | -0.067 | +0.016 | 288 | 317 |
| 2011 | -0.025 | -0.049 | -0.023 | 329 | 313 |
| 2010 | -0.052 | -0.072 | -0.020 | 273 | 333 |
| 2009 | -0.035 | +0.001 | +0.035 | 360 | 390 |
| 2008 | +0.089 | +0.087 | -0.001 | 345 | 317 |
| 2007 | -0.164 | -0.079 | +0.085 | 267 | 437 |
| 2006 | -0.002 | -0.108 | -0.105 | 260 | 283 |
| 2005 | +0.003 | -0.050 | -0.052 | 318 | 317 |
| 2004 | -0.133 | -0.197 | -0.063 | 275 | 354 |
| 2003 | +0.035 | -0.102 | -0.137 | 311 | 261 |
| 2002 | +0.108 | +0.005 | -0.103 | 378 | 301 |
| 2001 | +0.050 | -0.020 | -0.071 | 344 | 290 |
| 2000 | +0.085 | -0.044 | -0.129 | 301 | 213 |
| 1999 | -0.005 | -0.124 | -0.119 | 326 | 336 |
COACHING TENDENCIES
FULL RANKINGS →PASS RATE
55.0%
EARLY DOWN PASS
49.3%
SHOTGUN RATE
71.4%
NO HUDDLE
3.5%
4TH DOWN GO
20.3%
4TH DOWN CONV
47.8%
3RD DOWN CONV
34.9%
RED ZONE TD
80.0%
GOAL-TO-GO TD
82.3%
2-MIN DRILL EPA
-0.046
PTS/DRIVE
1.5
PLAYS/DRIVE
5.5
COACHING TREND
2020–2025 · 6 SEASONS| SEASON | PASS% | 4TH GO% | 3RD CONV% | RZ TD% | PTS/DRV | HALF ADJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 55.0% | 20.3% | 34.9% | 80.0% | 1.5 | -0.226 |
| 2024 | 59.0% | 24.8% | 36.7% | 81.0% | 1.3 | +0.092 |
| 2023 | 57.6% | 23.3% | 42.7% | 95.0% | 2.2 | -0.150 |
| 2022 | 62.3% | 20.5% | 37.0% | 81.0% | 1.7 | -0.218 |
| 2021 | 60.5% | 17.2% | 41.1% | 85.0% | 1.3 | -0.011 |
| 2020 | 58.9% | 9.1% | 38.8% | 86.4% | 1.5 | -0.015 |
TOP PLAYERS
ALL LEADERS →| PLAYER | POS | GP | PASS YD | RUSH YD | REC YD | TD | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 T.Tagovailoa | QB | 14 | 2,660 | 43 | — | 20 | 160.7 |
| D.Achane | RB | 16 | — | 1,350 | 488 | 12 | 322.8 |
| O.Gordon | RB | 17 | — | 199 | 32 | 4 | 54.1 |
| J.Waddle | WR | 16 | 8 | 28 | 910 | 6 | 194.1 |
| M.Washington | WR | 17 | — | 110 | 317 | 4 | 116.7 |
| T.Hill | WR | 4 | — | — | 265 | 1 | 53.5 |
| D.Waller | TE | 9 | — | 4 | 283 | 6 | 88.7 |
HOME / AWAY
GAME RESULTS BY LOCATION · 2020–2026 · 7 SEASONSHOME
34-17
67% WIN RATE
AWAY
20-30
40% WIN RATE
NOPUNT PICK RECORD
2020–2026 · 7 SEASONS42-13
PICKS FOR
76%
FOR ACCURACY
34-12
PICKS AGAINST
74%
AGAINST ACCURACY
101
GAMES TRACKED
ATS SPLITS
WHEN WE PICK MIA · 2020–2026 · 7 SEASONSHOME
22-11
66.7%
AWAY
12-10
54.5%
FAVORITE
28-16
63.6%
UNDERDOG
6-5
54.5%
S TIER
1-1
A+ TIER
6-1
A TIER
3-3
B TIER
18-11
C TIER
6-5
BY OPPONENT
MIN 2 PICKS FOR MIA · 2020–2026 · 7 SEASONS
vs NO2-0
vs WAS2-0
vs LV3-0
vs CAR2-0
vs NYG2-0
vs HOU2-0
vs NE6-1
vs NYJ10-2
vs CLE2-1
vs JAX1-1
vs DEN1-1
vs LAC1-1
vs CIN1-2
vs TEN0-3
PICK HISTORY
NEWEST FIRST| Week | Matchup | Our Pick | Tier | Conf. | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026·W18 | MIA @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | FCST | 77% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W17 | BUF @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | BUF | FCST | 70% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W16 | LAC @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | LAC | FCST | 62% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W15 | MIA @ GBSUN 1:00 PM | GB | FCST | 65% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W14 | CHI @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | CHI | FCST | 63% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W13 | MIA @ DENSUN 4:05 PM | DEN | FCST | 78% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W12 | NYJ @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | MIA | FCST | 73% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W11 | MIA @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | FCST | 77% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W10 | MIA @ INDSUN 1:00 PM | IND | FCST | 61% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W9 | DET @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | DET | FCST | 60% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W8 | NE @ MIASUN 4:25 PM | NE | FCST | 71% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W7 | MIA @ NYJSUN 1:00 PM | MIA | B | 70% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W5 | CIN @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | CIN | C | 59% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W4 | MIA @ MINSUN 4:05 PM | MIN | B | 67% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W3 | KC @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | MIA | C | 65% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W2 | MIA @ SFSUN 4:25 PM | SF | A | 72% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W1 | MIA @ LVSUN 4:25 PM | MIA | B | 70% | — | PENDING |
| 2025·W18 | MIA @ NESUN 4:25 PM | NE | A | 72% | MIA 10–38 NE | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W17 | TB @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | MIA | C | 61% | TB 17–20 MIA | WIN |
| 2025·W16 | CIN @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | MIA | B | 67% | CIN 45–21 MIA | LOSS |
| 2025·W15 | MIA @ PITMON 8:15 PM | PIT | C | 59% | MIA 15–28 PIT | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W14 | MIA @ NYJSUN 1:00 PM | MIA | B | 66% | MIA 34–10 NYJ | WIN |
| 2025·W13 | NO @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | MIA | A | 73% | NO 17–21 MIA | WIN |
| 2025·W11 | WAS @ MIASUN 9:30 AM | MIA | B | 68% | WAS 13–16 MIA | WIN |
| 2025·W10 | BUF @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | BUF | A | 72% | BUF 13–30 MIA | LOSS (vs) |
| 2025·W9 | BAL @ MIATHU 8:15 PM | BAL | C | 61% | BAL 28–6 MIA | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W8 | MIA @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | B | 70% | MIA 34–10 ATL | LOSS (vs) |
| 2025·W7 | MIA @ CLESUN 1:00 PM | MIA | B | 62% | MIA 6–31 CLE | LOSS |
| 2025·W6 | LAC @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | LAC | C | 59% | LAC 29–27 MIA | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W5 | MIA @ CARSUN 1:00 PM | CAR | B | 58% | MIA 24–27 CAR | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W4 | NYJ @ MIAMON 7:15 PM | MIA | B | 67% | NYJ 21–27 MIA | WIN |
| 2025·W3 | MIA @ BUFTHU 8:15 PM | BUF | S | 81% | MIA 21–31 BUF | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W2 | NE @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | MIA | B | 67% | NE 33–27 MIA | LOSS |
| 2025·W1 | MIA @ INDSUN 1:00 PM | IND | C | 61% | MIA 8–33 IND | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W18 | MIA @ NYJSUN 4:25 PM | MIA | B | 66% | MIA 20–32 NYJ | LOSS |
| 2024·W17 | MIA @ CLESUN 4:05 PM | MIA | A | 70% | MIA 20–3 CLE | WIN |
| 2024·W16 | SF @ MIASUN 4:25 PM | MIA | C | 60% | SF 17–29 MIA | WIN |
| 2024·W15 | MIA @ HOUSUN 1:00 PM | HOU | C | 58% | MIA 12–20 HOU | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W14 | NYJ @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | MIA | A | 71% | NYJ 26–32 MIA | WIN |
| 2024·W13 | MIA @ GBTHU 8:20 PM | GB | B | 69% | MIA 17–30 GB | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W12 | NE @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | MIA | A | 72% | NE 15–34 MIA | WIN |
| 2024·W11 | LV @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | MIA | B | 67% | LV 19–34 MIA | WIN |
| 2024·W10 | MIA @ LARMON 8:15 PM | LAR | B | 69% | MIA 23–15 LAR | LOSS (vs) |
| 2024·W9 | MIA @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | A+ | 76% | MIA 27–30 BUF | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W8 | ARI @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | MIA | C | 58% | ARI 28–27 MIA | LOSS |
| 2024·W7 | MIA @ INDSUN 1:00 PM | IND | C | 61% | MIA 10–16 IND | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W5 | MIA @ NESUN 1:00 PM | MIA | B | 64% | MIA 15–10 NE | WIN |
| 2024·W4 | TEN @ MIAMON 7:30 PM | MIA | A | 70% | TEN 31–12 MIA | LOSS |
| 2024·W3 | MIA @ SEASUN 4:05 PM | SEA | C | 59% | MIA 3–24 SEA | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W2 | BUF @ MIATHU 8:15 PM | BUF | B | 63% | BUF 31–10 MIA | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W1 | JAX @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | MIA | C | 62% | JAX 17–20 MIA | WIN |
| 2023·W18 | BUF @ MIASUN 8:20 PM | BUF | B | 60% | BUF 21–14 MIA | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W17 | MIA @ BALSUN 1:00 PM | BAL | B | 64% | MIA 19–56 BAL | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W16 | DAL @ MIASUN 4:25 PM | MIA | B | 60% | DAL 20–22 MIA | WIN |
| 2023·W15 | NYJ @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | MIA | A+ | 79% | NYJ 0–30 MIA | WIN |
| 2023·W14 | TEN @ MIAMON 8:15 PM | MIA | S | 81% | TEN 28–27 MIA | LOSS |
| 2023·W13 | MIA @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | MIA | B | 71% | MIA 45–15 WAS | WIN |
| 2023·W12 | MIA @ NYJFRI 3:00 PM | MIA | B | 71% | MIA 34–13 NYJ | WIN |
| 2023·W11 | LV @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | MIA | B | 66% | LV 13–20 MIA | WIN |
| 2023·W9 | MIA @ KCSUN 9:30 AM | KC | B | 68% | MIA 14–21 KC | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W8 | NE @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | MIA | A | 72% | NE 17–31 MIA | WIN |
| 2023·W7 | MIA @ PHISUN 8:20 PM | PHI | B | 59% | MIA 17–31 PHI | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W6 | CAR @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | MIA | A+ | 77% | CAR 21–42 MIA | WIN |
| 2023·W5 | NYG @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | MIA | A+ | 75% | NYG 16–31 MIA | WIN |
| 2023·W4 | MIA @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | B | 66% | MIA 20–48 BUF | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W3 | DEN @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | MIA | A+ | 75% | DEN 20–70 MIA | WIN |
| 2023·W2 | MIA @ NESUN 8:20 PM | MIA | C | 60% | MIA 24–17 NE | WIN |
| 2023·W1 | MIA @ LACSUN 4:25 PM | LAC | B | 65% | MIA 36–34 LAC | LOSS (vs) |
| 2022·W18 | NYJ @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | MIA | B | 66% | NYJ 6–11 MIA | WIN |
| 2022·W17 | MIA @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | B | 58% | MIA 21–23 NE | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W16 | GB @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | GB | B | 57% | GB 26–20 MIA | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W15 | MIA @ BUFSAT 8:15 PM | BUF | B | 69% | MIA 29–32 BUF | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W14 | MIA @ LACSUN 8:20 PM | MIA | B | 63% | MIA 17–23 LAC | LOSS |
| 2022·W13 | MIA @ SFSUN 4:05 PM | SF | B | 60% | MIA 17–33 SF | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W12 | HOU @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | MIA | S | 80% | HOU 15–30 MIA | WIN |
| 2022·W10 | CLE @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | MIA | B | 63% | CLE 17–39 MIA | WIN |
| 2022·W9 | MIA @ CHISUN 1:00 PM | MIA | B | 66% | MIA 35–32 CHI | WIN |
| 2022·W8 | MIA @ DETSUN 1:00 PM | MIA | A+ | 71% | MIA 31–27 DET | WIN |
| 2022·W7 | PIT @ MIASUN 8:20 PM | MIA | C | 58% | PIT 10–16 MIA | WIN |
| 2022·W6 | MIN @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | MIN | B | 60% | MIN 24–16 MIA | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W5 | MIA @ NYJSUN 1:00 PM | MIA | B | 69% | MIA 17–40 NYJ | LOSS |
| 2022·W4 | MIA @ CINTHU 8:15 PM | MIA | B | 64% | MIA 15–27 CIN | LOSS |
| 2022·W3 | BUF @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | BUF | B | 61% | BUF 19–21 MIA | LOSS (vs) |
| 2022·W2 | MIA @ BALSUN 1:00 PM | MIA | B | 66% | MIA 42–38 BAL | WIN |
| 2022·W1 | NE @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | NE | C | 57% | NE 7–20 MIA | LOSS (vs) |
| 2021·W18 | NE @ MIASUN 4:25 PM | NE | C | 55% | NE 24–33 MIA | LOSS (vs) |
| 2021·W17 | MIA @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | MIA | C | 52% | MIA 3–34 TEN | LOSS |
| 2021·W16 | MIA @ NOMON 8:15 PM | MIA | C | 52% | MIA 20–3 NO | WIN |
| 2021·W15 | NYJ @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | MIA | A+ | 68% | NYJ 24–31 MIA | WIN |
| 2021·W13 | NYG @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | MIA | B | 58% | NYG 9–20 MIA | WIN |
| 2021·W12 | CAR @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | MIA | C | 52% | CAR 10–33 MIA | WIN |
| 2021·W11 | MIA @ NYJSUN 1:00 PM | MIA | B | 60% | MIA 24–17 NYJ | WIN |
| 2021·W10 | BAL @ MIATHU 8:20 PM | BAL | A+ | 67% | BAL 10–22 MIA | LOSS (vs) |
| 2021·W9 | HOU @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | MIA | B | 59% | HOU 9–17 MIA | WIN |
| 2021·W8 | MIA @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | A+ | 73% | MIA 11–26 BUF | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W7 | ATL @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | ATL | C | 50% | ATL 30–28 MIA | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W6 | MIA @ JAXSUN 9:30 AM | MIA | B | 62% | MIA 20–23 JAX | LOSS |
| 2021·W5 | MIA @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | TB | B | 62% | MIA 17–45 TB | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W4 | IND @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | IND | C | 50% | IND 27–17 MIA | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W3 | MIA @ LVSUN 4:05 PM | LV | C | 52% | MIA 28–31 LV | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W2 | BUF @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | BUF | B | 55% | BUF 35–0 MIA | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W1 | MIA @ NESUN 4:25 PM | MIA | B | 53% | MIA 17–16 NE | WIN |
| 2020·W17 | MIA @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | B | 58% | MIA 26–56 BUF | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W16 | MIA @ LVSAT 8:15 PM | MIA | C | 57% | MIA 26–25 LV | WIN |
| 2020·W15 | NE @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | MIA | C | 54% | NE 12–22 MIA | WIN |
| 2020·W14 | KC @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | KC | B | 57% | KC 33–27 MIA | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W13 | CIN @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | MIA | A+ | 70% | CIN 7–19 MIA | WIN |
| 2020·W12 | MIA @ NYJSUN 1:00 PM | MIA | B | 63% | MIA 20–3 NYJ | WIN |
| 2020·W11 | MIA @ DENSUN 4:05 PM | MIA | B | 61% | MIA 13–20 DEN | LOSS |
| 2020·W10 | LAC @ MIASUN 4:05 PM | MIA | B | 64% | LAC 21–29 MIA | WIN |
| 2020·W9 | MIA @ ARISUN 4:25 PM | ARI | C | 52% | MIA 34–31 ARI | LOSS (vs) |
| 2020·W8 | LAR @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | LAR | C | 55% | LAR 17–28 MIA | LOSS (vs) |
| 2020·W6 | NYJ @ MIASUN 4:05 PM | MIA | B | 63% | NYJ 0–24 MIA | WIN |
| 2020·W5 | MIA @ SFSUN 4:05 PM | SF | B | 62% | MIA 43–17 SF | LOSS (vs) |
| 2020·W4 | SEA @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | SEA | B | 60% | SEA 31–23 MIA | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W3 | MIA @ JAXTHU 8:20 PM | JAX | C | 54% | MIA 31–13 JAX | LOSS (vs) |
| 2020·W2 | BUF @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | BUF | B | 59% | BUF 31–28 MIA | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W1 | MIA @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | A+ | 63% | MIA 11–21 NE | WIN (vs) |
