Jaguars vs Dolphins – Week 1 2024
JAX
MIA
JAX
AWAY
17@20
MIA BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 17, Miami Dolphins 20.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Dolphins.
Model confidence: MIA 62%Our line: MIA -4.3
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -4.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
MIA · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
62%
DIFFERENCE
+0%
| SOURCE | JAX | MIA | MIA WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +150 | -180 | 62.1% |
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.149Net EPA / play-0.017
-0.020 (18)Offense EPA / play-0.039 (21)
+0.129 (31)Defense EPA / play-0.022 (9)
41.5% (21)Offense success %44.3% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIA by 4.3. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)home_underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
MIA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
91°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@JAXW6 2021 | MIA 20, JAX 23 | MIA | L |
| MIA@JAXW3 2020 | MIA 31, JAX 13 | JAX | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs MIA
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 62% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIA by 4.3. The market has MIA at -3.5.
Miami Dolphins won, JAX 17, MIA 20. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -3.5, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 1, the Miami Dolphins were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, MIA 20, JAX 23 in Week 6 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Miami Dolphins: JAX -0.149 against MIA -0.017.
