2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
JAX @ MIA – Week 1 2024
JAX
MIA
JAX
AWAY
17@20
MIA +3
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
MIA
HOME
TIER C
PICK: MIA
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: MIA 62%Projected margin: 2.6
MIA
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
2.6
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIA by 2.6. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -180 | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
JAX
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)home_underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
MIA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
91°F
WIND
10 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
JAX
B.Thomas
WR
284.0SEASON PPR
T.Lawrence
QB
145.7SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
130.2SEASON PPR
MIA
D.Achane
RB
299.9SEASON PPR
J.Smith
TE
222.3SEASON PPR
T.Hill
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@JAXW6 2021 | MIA 20, JAX 23 | MIA | L |
| MIA@JAXW3 2020 | MIA 31, JAX 13 | JAX | L |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES