JAX @ MIA – Week 1 2024
JAX
MIA
JAX
AWAY
17@20
MIA BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
Model confidence: MIA 62%Our line: MIA -4.3
MIA
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.3
OUR LINE
-166
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.149Net EPA / play-0.017
-0.020Offense EPA / play-0.039
+0.129Defense EPA / play-0.022
41.5%Offense success %44.3%
45.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIA by 4.3. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | JAX | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +150 | -180 |
| Our fair price | +166 | -166 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIA -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.61
OUR NUMBER
62%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
62%
DIFFERENCE
+1%
Both figures are for MIA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)home_underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
MIA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
91°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
JAX
B.Thomas
WR
284.0 SEASON PPR
T.Lawrence
QB
145.7 SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
130.2 SEASON PPR
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Jacksonville JaguarsPASSING
T.Lawrence2045 yd · 11 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
T.Bigsby766 yd · 7 TD
T.Etienne558 yd · 2 TD
D.Johnson143 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
B.Thomas87 rec · 1282 yd · 10 TD
B.Strange40 rec · 411 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@JAXW6 2021 | MIA 20, JAX 23 | MIA | L |
| MIA@JAXW3 2020 | MIA 31, JAX 13 | JAX | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs MIA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 62% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIA by 4.3. The market has MIA at -3.5.
Week 1 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, MIA 20, JAX 23 in Week 6 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Miami Dolphins: JAX -0.149 against MIA -0.017.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
