Texans vs Colts – Week 1 2024
HOU
IND
HOU
AWAY
29@27
HOU BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 29, Indianapolis Colts 27.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Texans, 1 Colts.
Model confidence: IND 50%Our line: IND +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
IND +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND +0.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
IND · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
41%
DIFFERENCE
+9%
| SOURCE | HOU | IND | IND WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -155 | +130 | 41.3% |
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.015Net EPA / play-0.061
-0.050 (22)Offense EPA / play-0.057 (24)
-0.065 (5)Defense EPA / play+0.004 (13)
38.8% (31)Offense success %40.2% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick misses. HOU takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but HOU won. Projected margin was 0.0, the model overestimated by 2.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
IND
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@INDW3 2026 | HOU 17, IND 19 | HOU | L |
| IND@HOUW18 2025 | IND 30, HOU 38 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW13 2025 | HOU 20, IND 16 | IND | L |
| IND@HOUW8 2024 | IND 20, HOU 23 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW18 2023 | HOU 23, IND 19 | IND | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs IND
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project HOU by 0.0. The market has IND at +3.0.
Houston Texans won, HOU 29, IND 27. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at +3.0, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 1, the Houston Texans were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, HOU 17, IND 19 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Houston Texans: HOU +0.015 against IND -0.061.
