HOU @ IND – Week 1 2024
HOU
IND
HOU
AWAY
29@27
HOU BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
Model confidence: IND 50%Our line: IND +0.0
IND
PICK SIDE
+3.0
MARKET SPREAD
+0.0
OUR LINE
+100
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.015Net EPA / play-0.061
-0.050Offense EPA / play-0.057
-0.065Defense EPA / play+0.004
38.8%Offense success %40.2%
39.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick misses. HOU takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but HOU won. Projected margin was 0.0, the model overestimated by 2.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | HOU | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -155 | +130 |
| Our fair price | -100 | +100 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD IND +3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
50%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
42%
DIFFERENCE
+8%
Both figures are for IND. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
IND
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
HOU
J.Mixon
RB
240.5 SEASON PPR
C.Stroud
QB
220.4 SEASON PPR
N.Collins
WR
210.6 SEASON PPR
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
C.Stroud3727 yd · 20 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
J.Mixon1016 yd · 11 TD
D.Pierce293 yd · 2 TD
C.Stroud233 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
N.Collins68 rec · 1006 yd · 7 TD
T.Dell51 rec · 667 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@HOUW18 2025 | IND 30, HOU 38 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW13 2025 | HOU 20, IND 16 | IND | L |
| IND@HOUW8 2024 | IND 20, HOU 23 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW18 2023 | HOU 23, IND 19 | IND | L |
| IND@HOUW2 2023 | IND 31, HOU 20 | HOU | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs IND
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project HOU by 0.0. The market has IND at +3.0.
Week 1 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, IND 30, HOU 38 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Houston Texans: HOU +0.015 against IND -0.061.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
