Jets vs 49ers – Week 1 2024
NYJ
SF
NYJ
AWAY
19@32
SF BY 13
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 19, San Francisco 49ers 32.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Jets, 3 49ers.
Model confidence: SF 72%Our line: SF -7.9
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -7.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
SF · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
62%
DIFFERENCE
+10%
| SOURCE | NYJ | SF | SF WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +150 | -180 | 62.1% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.037Net EPA / play+0.028
-0.013 (17)Offense EPA / play+0.069 (10)
+0.024 (20)Defense EPA / play+0.041 (23)
42.6% (18)Offense success %46.1% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 7.9. Actual: 13. Off by 5.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
SF
road_favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
76°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs SF
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 72% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project SF by 7.9. The market has SF at -3.5.
San Francisco 49ers won, NYJ 19, SF 32. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -3.5, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 1, the New York Jets were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2024 season, MON 8:15 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 31, NYJ 13 in Week 2 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, San Francisco 49ers: NYJ -0.037 against SF +0.028.
