2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NYJ @ SF – Week 1 2024
NYJ
SF
NYJ
AWAY
19@32
SF +13
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
SF
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: SF
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: SF 72%Projected margin: 7.8
SF
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
7.8
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
SF A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 7.8. Actual: 13. Off by 5.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | SF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -180 | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NYJ
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
SF
road_favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
76°F
WIND
10 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
NYJ
A.Rodgers
QB
256.6SEASON PPR
G.Wilson
WR
251.9SEASON PPR
B.Hall
RB
240.9SEASON PPR
SF
B.Purdy
QB
266.9SEASON PPR
G.Kittle
TE
236.6SEASON PPR
J.Jennings
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@NYJW2 2020 | SF 31, NYJ 13 | SF | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES