Broncos vs Seahawks – Week 1 2024
DEN
SEA
DEN
AWAY
20@26
SEA BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 20, Seattle Seahawks 26.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Seahawks.
Model confidence: SEA 61%Our line: SEA -3.7
ODDS
SPREAD
SEA -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SEA -3.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SEA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
SEA · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
71%
DIFFERENCE
-10%
| SOURCE | DEN | SEA | SEA WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +225 | -278 | 71.4% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.138Net EPA / play-0.018
+0.020 (14)Offense EPA / play-0.030 (19)
-0.118 (1)Defense EPA / play-0.012 (11)
42.7% (17)Offense success %43.9% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected SEA by 3.7. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 2.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
SEA
home_underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
65°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@DENW6 2026 | SEA 14, DEN 17 | DEN | W |
| DEN@SEAW1 2022 | DEN 16, SEA 17 | SEA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs SEA
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 61% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project SEA by 3.7. The market has SEA at -6.5.
Seattle Seahawks won, DEN 20, SEA 26. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at -6.5, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 1, the Seattle Seahawks were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Denver Broncos, SEA 14, DEN 17 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Denver Broncos: DEN +0.138 against SEA -0.018.
