2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DEN @ SEA – Week 1 2024
DEN
SEA
DEN
AWAY
20@26
SEA +6
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
SEA
HOME
TIER C
PICK: SEA
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: SEA 61%Projected margin: 2.0
SEA
PICK SIDE
-6.5
SPREAD
2.0
PROJ MARGIN
-255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SEA. Projected margin: 2.0. Actual: 6. Off by 4.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.5 | SEA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.39 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DEN
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
SEA
home_underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
65°F
WIND
7 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEN
B.Nix
QB
317.2SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
240.3SEASON PPR
J.Williams
RB
157.9SEASON PPR
SEA
G.Smith
QB
266.0SEASON PPR
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
253.0SEASON PPR
D.Metcalf
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@SEAW1 2022 | DEN 16, SEA 17 | SEA | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES