Seahawks vs Broncos – Week 6 2026
SEA
DEN
SEA
AWAY
@
THU 8:15 PM
WEEK 6 · 2026 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Broncos over the Seahawks at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick.
The market has the Broncos at +2.5, and our model is 7.3 points higher on them than the book.
Out or doubtful: 3 Seahawks, 2 Broncos.
Model confidence: DEN 64%Our line: DEN -4.8
80% range around our line: SEA by 12 to DEN by 22. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the DEN game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -4.8
OUR LINE
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 6 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.060Net EPA / play-0.041
-0.073 (25)Offense EPA / play-0.066 (24)
-0.133 (2)Defense EPA / play-0.025 (14)
41.5% (22)Offense success %39.9% (26)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Model favors DEN (B-tier, 64% confidence).
3 OUT
SEA is missing 3 players including Chazz Surratt (LB), Drake Thomas (LB), Zach Charbonnet (RB). Depth losses compound across units.
HIGH CONVICTION
DEN is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
OVER EDGE
Model projects 44.3 total points vs the 40.5 line. That's a 3.8-point over edge.
Net-positive signal profile for DEN. Grade: B.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@SEAW1 2024 | DEN 20, SEA 26 | SEA | W |
| DEN@SEAW1 2022 | DEN 16, SEA 17 | SEA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs DEN
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DEN by 4.8. The market has DEN at +2.5.
Our model favors Denver Broncos at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick.
The market has Denver Broncos at +2.5, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 2.5 points.
Heading into Week 6, the Seattle Seahawks are without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos are without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.3, 3.8 above the market, which our board calls an over.
Week 6 of the 2026 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, DEN 20, SEA 26 in Week 1 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Seattle Seahawks: SEA +0.060 against DEN -0.041.
