Cowboys vs Packers – Week 6 2026
DAL
GB
DAL
AWAY
@
SUN 8:20 PM
WEEK 6 · 2026 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Packers over the Cowboys at 64% win probability, a Tier C pick.
The market has the Packers at -1.5, and our model is 3.5 points higher on them than the book.
Out or doubtful: 2 Cowboys, 5 Packers.
A midweek injury update moved the Packers from 66% to 64%.
Model confidence: GB 64%Our line: GB -5.0
80% range around our line: DAL by 12 to GB by 22. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the GB game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -5.0
OUR LINE
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 6 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.066Net EPA / play+0.018
+0.127 (7)Offense EPA / play-0.021 (18)
+0.193 (32)Defense EPA / play-0.039 (11)
47.9% (6)Offense success %40.7% (24)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
WHY THIS PICK
GB is our C-tier play in DAL @ GB (Week 6, 2026). The model assigns 64% confidence and projects GB by 5.0. The market has GB -1.5, so it expects GB to win by 1.5. The model is 3.5 points higher on GB than the book, the widest kind of gap this model produces.
MODEL AGREEMENT
The three models split on this game. The majority side is what we publish, and it carries less weight than a unanimous one.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@DALW4 2025 | GB 40, DAL 40 | GB | P |
| DAL@GBW10 2022 | DAL 28, GB 31 | DAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs GB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 64% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project GB by 5.0. The market has GB at -1.5.
Our model favors Green Bay Packers at 64% win probability, a Tier C pick.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -1.5, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 1.5 points.
Heading into Week 6, the Dallas Cowboys are without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Green Bay Packers are without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 53.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.6, 4.9 below the market, which our board calls an under.
Week 6 of the 2026 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
They tied, GB 40, DAL 40 in Week 4 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Green Bay Packers: DAL -0.066 against GB +0.018.
