WAS @ SF – Week 6 2026
WAS
SF
WAS
AWAY
@
MON 8:15 PM
WEEK 6 · 2026 SEASON
SF
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: SF 74%Projected margin: -7.1
SF
PICK SIDE
-5.5
SPREAD
-7.1
PROJ MARGIN
-221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.137Net EPA / play+0.018
+0.005Offense EPA / play+0.088
+0.142Defense EPA / play+0.070
45.6%Offense success %48.3%
47.6%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
A+-tier pick on SF at 74% confidence.
EPA EDGE
SF generates 0.088 EPA/play on offense. WAS's defense allows 0.142. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
HIGH CONVICTION
SF is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 7.1-point margin. Games projected by 7+ points have a strong cover rate historically.
Multiple signals align in SF's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.5 | SF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
WAS
D.Samuel
WR
188.2SEASON PPR
J.Croskey-Merritt
RB
140.3SEASON PPR
Z.Ertz
TE
126.4SEASON PPR
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
M.Mariota1695 yd · 10 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
J.Croskey-Merritt805 yd · 8 TD
C.Rodriguez500 yd · 6 TD
M.Mariota297 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
D.Samuel72 rec · 727 yd · 5 TD
T.McLaurin38 rec · 582 yd · 3 TD
Z.Ertz50 rec · 504 yd · 4 TD
J.Lane16 rec · 225 yd · 0 TD
VS
1,695PASSyds2,167
1,602RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@WASW17 2023 | SF 27, WAS 10 | SF | W |
| WAS@SFW16 2022 | WAS 20, SF 37 | SF | W |
| WAS@SFW14 2020 | WAS 23, SF 15 | SF | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs SF
Who is favored in Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers?
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 74% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project SF by 7.1. The market has SF at -5.5.
When do the Washington Commanders and San Francisco 49ers play?
Week 6 of the 2026 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Who won the last Washington Commanders vs San Francisco 49ers game?
San Francisco 49ers, 27-10 in Week 17 of 2023.
Which team has been better, the Washington Commanders or the San Francisco 49ers?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, San Francisco 49ers: WAS -0.137 against SF +0.018.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
