Bears vs Falcons – Week 6 2026
CHI
ATL
CHI
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 6 · 2026 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Falcons over the Bears at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick.
The market has the Falcons at +1.5, and our model is 4.8 points higher on them than the book.
Out or doubtful: 4 Bears, 1 Falcons.
A midweek injury update moved the Falcons from 50% to 60%.
Model confidence: ATL 60%Our line: ATL -3.3
80% range around our line: CHI by 14 to ATL by 21. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the ATL game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
ATL +1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ATL -3.3
OUR LINE
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 6 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.008Net EPA / play+0.012
+0.023 (12)Offense EPA / play-0.023 (19)
+0.015 (20)Defense EPA / play-0.035 (12)
46.1% (11)Offense success %46.3% (10)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Model favors ATL (C-tier, 60% confidence).
4 OUT
CHI is missing 4 players including T.J. Edwards (LB), Dayo Odeyingbo (DE), Kyle Monangai (RB). Depth losses compound across units.
UNDER EDGE
Model projects 48.6 total points vs the 51.5 line. That's a 2.9-point under edge.
RED ZONE
ATL converts 86% in the red zone vs 53% for CHI. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
Net-positive signal profile for ATL. Grade: C.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
T.Bagent409 yd · 0 TD · 3 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@CHIW17 2023 | ATL 17, CHI 37 | CHI | W |
| CHI@ATLW11 2022 | CHI 24, ATL 27 | ATL | W |
| CHI@ATLW3 2020 | CHI 30, ATL 26 | CHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs ATL
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project ATL by 3.3. The market has ATL at +1.5.
Our model favors Atlanta Falcons at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick.
The market has Atlanta Falcons at +1.5, meaning the book expects Atlanta Falcons to win by 1.5 points.
Heading into Week 6, the Chicago Bears are without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Atlanta Falcons are without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.6, 2.9 below the market, which our board calls an under.
Week 6 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, ATL 17, CHI 37 in Week 17 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Atlanta Falcons: CHI +0.008 against ATL +0.012.
