CHI @ ATL – Week 6 2026
CHI
ATL
CHI
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 6 · 2026 SEASON
ATL
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: ATL 61%Projected margin: -1.6
ATL
PICK SIDE
+3.0
SPREAD
-1.6
PROJ MARGIN
+154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.061Net EPA / play-0.018
+0.080Offense EPA / play-0.021
+0.018Defense EPA / play-0.004
45.8%Offense success %43.7%
46.7%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
ATL is our C-tier play in CHI @ ATL (Week 6, 2026). The model assigns 60.9% confidence and projects ATL by 1.6. Market spread sits at ATL +3.0.
MODEL CONVICTION
Split. The model leans this way with less conviction.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.0 | ATL market line | |
| MODEL ML | +154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CHI
C.Williams
QB
318.2SEASON PPR
D.Swift
RB
228.6SEASON PPR
D.Moore
WR
172.2SEASON PPR
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
C.Williams3942 yd · 27 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
D.Swift1087 yd · 9 TD
K.Monangai783 yd · 5 TD
C.Williams383 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
C.Loveland58 rec · 713 yd · 6 TD
D.Moore50 rec · 682 yd · 6 TD
R.Odunze44 rec · 661 yd · 6 TD
L.Burden47 rec · 652 yd · 2 TD
VS
3,942PASSyds1,982
2,253RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@CHIW17 2023 | ATL 17, CHI 37 | CHI | W |
| CHI@ATLW11 2022 | CHI 24, ATL 27 | ATL | W |
| CHI@ATLW3 2020 | CHI 30, ATL 26 | CHI | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs ATL
Who is favored in Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons?
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 61% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project ATL by 1.6. The market has ATL at +3.0.
When do the Chicago Bears and Atlanta Falcons play?
Week 6 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons game?
Chicago Bears, 17-37 in Week 17 of 2023.
Which team has been better, the Chicago Bears or the Atlanta Falcons?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Chicago Bears: CHI +0.061 against ATL -0.018.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
