BAL @ CLE – Week 6 2026
BAL
CLE
BAL
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 6 · 2026 SEASON
CLE
HOME
Model confidence: BAL 66%Projected margin: -2.7
BAL
PICK SIDE
-6.5
SPREAD
-2.7
PROJ MARGIN
-255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.010Net EPA / play-0.094
+0.034Offense EPA / play-0.190
+0.024Defense EPA / play-0.096
44.6%Offense success %34.5%
44.1%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL backed by epa edge at 66%.
EPA EDGE
BAL generates 0.034 EPA/play on offense. CLE's defense allows -0.096. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
HIGH CONVICTION
BAL is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
H2H EDGE
BAL has won 3 of the last 5 meetings against CLE.
DRIVE EFF
BAL scores 1.9 points per drive vs 1.0 for CLE. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Multiple signals align in BAL's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.5 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
BAL
D.Henry
RB
279.5SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
243.3SEASON PPR
L.Jackson
QB
214.9SEASON PPR
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Baltimore RavensPASSING
L.Jackson2549 yd · 21 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
D.Henry1595 yd · 16 TD
L.Jackson349 yd · 2 TD
K.Mitchell341 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Z.Flowers86 rec · 1211 yd · 5 TD
M.Andrews48 rec · 422 yd · 5 TD
D.Hopkins22 rec · 330 yd · 2 TD
I.Likely27 rec · 307 yd · 1 TD
VS
2,549PASSyds1,400
2,285RUSH
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@BALW16 2026 | — | BAL | — |
| BAL@CLEW11 2025 | BAL 23, CLE 16 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW2 2025 | CLE 17, BAL 41 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW18 2024 | CLE 10, BAL 35 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CLEW8 2024 | BAL 24, CLE 29 | BAL | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs CLE
Who is favored in Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns?
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 2.7. The market has BAL at -6.5.
When do the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns play?
Week 6 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns game?
Baltimore Ravens, 23-16 in Week 11 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Baltimore Ravens or the Cleveland Browns?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.010 against CLE -0.094.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
