Ravens vs Browns – Week 6 2026
BAL
CLE
BAL
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 6 · 2026 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Ravens over the Browns at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick.
The market has the Ravens at -3.0, and our model is 3.7 points higher on them than the book.
Out or doubtful: 4 Ravens, 5 Browns.
Model confidence: BAL 69%Our line: BAL -6.7
80% range around our line: CLE by 11 to BAL by 24. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the BAL game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -6.7
OUR LINE
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 6 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.168Net EPA / play-0.058
+0.151 (5)Offense EPA / play-0.080 (26)
-0.017 (16)Defense EPA / play-0.022 (15)
50.7% (2)Offense success %39.1% (28)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL backed by qb out at 69%.
QB OUT
Dillon Gabriel is OUT for CLE. Backup QBs average roughly -0.15 EPA/play vs starters.
EPA EDGE
BAL generates 0.151 EPA/play on offense. CLE's defense allows -0.022. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
4 OUT
CLE is missing 4 players including Teven Jenkins (G), Kalia Davis (DT), Mike Hall Jr. (DT). Depth losses compound across units.
HIGH CONVICTION
BAL is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
OVER EDGE
Model projects 44.2 total points vs the 39.5 line. That's a 4.7-point over edge.
Multiple signals align in BAL's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CLEW11 2025 | BAL 23, CLE 16 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW2 2025 | CLE 17, BAL 41 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW18 2024 | CLE 10, BAL 35 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CLEW8 2024 | BAL 24, CLE 29 | BAL | L |
| CLE@BALW10 2023 | CLE 33, BAL 31 | BAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs CLE
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 6.7. The market has BAL at -3.0.
Our model favors Baltimore Ravens at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -3.0, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 3.0 points.
Heading into Week 6, the Baltimore Ravens are without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cleveland Browns are without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 39.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.2, 4.7 above the market, which our board calls an over.
Week 6 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 23, CLE 16 in Week 11 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.168 against CLE -0.058.
