2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BAL @ CLE – Week 8 2024
BAL
CLE
BAL
AWAY
24@29
CLE +5
FINAL · WEEK 8
2024 SEASON
CLE
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: BAL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: BAL 75%Projected margin: -8.1
BAL
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
-8.1
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A+-tier pick misses. CLE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but CLE won. Projected margin was 8.1 -- the model overestimated by 13.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -380 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
CLE
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)home_underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
52°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
BAL
L.Jackson
QB
430.4SEASON PPR
D.Henry
RB
336.4SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
209.5SEASON PPR
CLE
J.Jeudy
WR
240.9SEASON PPR
D.Njoku
TE
148.5SEASON PPR
J.Ford
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CLEW11 2025 | BAL 23, CLE 16 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW2 2025 | CLE 17, BAL 41 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW18 2024 | CLE 10, BAL 35 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW10 2023 | CLE 33, BAL 31 | BAL | L |
| BAL@CLEW4 2023 | BAL 28, CLE 3 | CLE | L |
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES