Ravens vs Browns – Week 8 2024
BAL
CLE
BAL
AWAY
24@29
CLE BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 8
2024 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 24, Cleveland Browns 29.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 75% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Ravens, 4 Browns.
Model confidence: BAL 75%Our line: BAL -9.2
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -9.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
+0.269Net EPA / play-0.201
+0.218 (1)Offense EPA / play-0.183 (32)
-0.051 (8)Defense EPA / play+0.017 (18)
50.0% (2)Offense success %37.0% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A+-tier pick misses. CLE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but CLE won. Projected margin was 9.2, the model overestimated by 14.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
CLE
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)home_underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
52°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CLEW6 2026 | BAL 10, CLE 13 | BAL | L |
| BAL@CLEW11 2025 | BAL 23, CLE 16 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW2 2025 | CLE 17, BAL 41 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW18 2024 | CLE 10, BAL 35 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW10 2023 | CLE 33, BAL 31 | BAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs CLE
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 75% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BAL by 9.2. The market has BAL at -7.5.
Cleveland Browns won, BAL 24, CLE 29. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 75% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -7.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 8, the Baltimore Ravens were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cleveland Browns were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.0, 0.5 below the market.
Week 8 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, BAL 10, CLE 13 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.269 against CLE -0.201.
