2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
GB @ JAX – Week 8 2024
GB
JAX
GB
AWAY
30@27
GB +3
FINAL · WEEK 8
2024 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER B
PICK: GB
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: GB 64%Projected margin: -3.0
GB
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-3.0
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected GB by 3.0. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | GB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -192 | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
GB
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
JAX
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)home_underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
84°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
GB
J.Jacobs
RB
293.1SEASON PPR
J.Love
QB
233.9SEASON PPR
J.Reed
WR
197.0SEASON PPR
JAX
B.Thomas
WR
284.0SEASON PPR
T.Lawrence
QB
145.7SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@GBW10 2020 | JAX 20, GB 24 | GB | W |
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES