ARI @ MIA – Week 8 2024
ARI
MIA
ARI
AWAY
28@27
ARI BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 8
2024 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
Model confidence: MIA 58%Our line: MIA -2.8
MIA
PICK SIDE
-4.0
MARKET SPREAD
-2.8
OUR LINE
-140
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.011Net EPA / play-0.017
+0.067Offense EPA / play-0.039
+0.056Defense EPA / play-0.022
47.3%Offense success %44.3%
47.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA C-tier pick misses. ARI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIA but ARI won. Projected margin was 2.8, the model overestimated by 3.8 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ARI | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +164 | -198 |
| Our fair price | +140 | -140 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIA -4.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
58%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
64%
DIFFERENCE
-5%
Both figures are for MIA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
MIA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
14 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
ARI
K.Murray
QB
297.2 SEASON PPR
J.Conner
RB
253.8 SEASON PPR
T.McBride
TE
243.8 SEASON PPR
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
K.Murray3851 yd · 21 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
J.Conner1094 yd · 8 TD
K.Murray572 yd · 5 TD
T.Benson291 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
T.McBride111 rec · 1146 yd · 2 TD
M.Harrison62 rec · 885 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@ARIW9 2020 | MIA 34, ARI 31 | ARI | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs MIA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIA by 2.8. The market has MIA at -4.0.
The model projects 44.1 combined points. The market total is 46.5.
Week 8 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, MIA 34, ARI 31 in Week 9 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Arizona Cardinals: ARI +0.011 against MIA -0.017.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
