2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ARI @ MIA – Week 8 2024
ARI
MIA
ARI
AWAY
28@27
ARI +1
FINAL · WEEK 8
2024 SEASON
MIA
HOME
TIER C
PICK: MIA
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: MIA 58%Projected margin: 1.1
MIA
PICK SIDE
-4.0
SPREAD
1.1
PROJ MARGIN
-178
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA C-tier pick misses. ARI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIA but ARI won. Projected margin was 1.1 -- the model overestimated by 2.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.0 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -178 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +164 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ARI
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
MIA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
14 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
ARI
K.Murray
QB
297.2SEASON PPR
J.Conner
RB
253.8SEASON PPR
T.McBride
TE
243.8SEASON PPR
MIA
D.Achane
RB
299.9SEASON PPR
J.Smith
TE
222.3SEASON PPR
T.Hill
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@ARIW9 2020 | MIA 34, ARI 31 | ARI | L |
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES