Cardinals vs Dolphins – Week 8 2024
ARI
MIA
ARI
AWAY
28@27
ARI BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 8
2024 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 28, Miami Dolphins 27.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 58% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Cardinals, 3 Dolphins.
Model confidence: MIA 58%Our line: MIA -2.8
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -2.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
+0.011Net EPA / play-0.017
+0.067 (11)Offense EPA / play-0.039 (21)
+0.056 (26)Defense EPA / play-0.022 (9)
47.3% (8)Offense success %44.3% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA C-tier pick misses. ARI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIA but ARI won. Projected margin was 2.8, the model overestimated by 3.8 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
MIA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
14 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
K.Murray3851 yd · 21 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
J.Conner1094 yd · 8 TD
K.Murray572 yd · 5 TD
T.Benson291 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
T.McBride111 rec · 1146 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@ARIW9 2020 | MIA 34, ARI 31 | ARI | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs MIA
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIA by 2.8. The market has MIA at -4.0.
Arizona Cardinals won, ARI 28, MIA 27. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 58% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -4.0, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 8, the Arizona Cardinals were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Miami Dolphins were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.1, 2.4 below the market.
Week 8 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, MIA 34, ARI 31 in Week 9 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Arizona Cardinals: ARI +0.011 against MIA -0.017.
