Bears vs Commanders – Week 8 2024
CHI
WAS
CHI
AWAY
15@18
WAS BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 8
2024 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 15, Washington Commanders 18.
Going in, our model had favored Washington Commanders at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bears, 1 Commanders.
Model confidence: WAS 58%Our line: WAS -2.7
ODDS
SPREAD
WAS -1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
WAS -2.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
WAS · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
-0.088Net EPA / play+0.128
-0.082 (26)Offense EPA / play+0.139 (4)
+0.006 (14)Defense EPA / play+0.011 (15)
39.9% (30)Offense success %48.5% (4)
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected WAS by 2.7. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.3 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
home_underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
WAS
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
58°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@WASW6 2025 | CHI 25, WAS 24 | WAS | L |
| CHI@WASW5 2023 | CHI 40, WAS 20 | WAS | L |
| WAS@CHIW6 2022 | WAS 12, CHI 7 | CHI | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs WAS
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project WAS by 2.7. The market has WAS at -1.5.
Washington Commanders won, CHI 15, WAS 18. Our model had favored Washington Commanders at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Washington Commanders at -1.5, meaning the book expects Washington Commanders to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 8, the Chicago Bears were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Washington Commanders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.0, 3.5 below the market.
Week 8 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Chicago Bears, CHI 25, WAS 24 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Washington Commanders: CHI -0.088 against WAS +0.128.
