CHI @ WAS – Week 8 2024
CHI
WAS
CHI
AWAY
15@18
WAS BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 8
2024 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
Model confidence: WAS 58%Our line: WAS -2.7
WAS
PICK SIDE
-1.5
MARKET SPREAD
-2.7
OUR LINE
-138
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.088Net EPA / play+0.128
-0.082Offense EPA / play+0.139
+0.006Defense EPA / play+0.011
39.9%Offense success %48.5%
44.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected WAS by 2.7. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.3 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CHI | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +102 | -122 |
| Our fair price | +138 | -138 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD WAS -1.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.81
OUR NUMBER
58%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
53%
DIFFERENCE
+5%
Both figures are for WAS. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
home_underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
WAS
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
58°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CHI
C.Williams
QB
254.5 SEASON PPR
D.Moore
WR
238.1 SEASON PPR
D.Swift
RB
214.5 SEASON PPR
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
C.Williams3541 yd · 20 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
D.Swift959 yd · 6 TD
C.Williams489 yd · 0 TD
R.Johnson150 yd · 6 TD
RECEIVING
D.Moore98 rec · 966 yd · 6 TD
K.Allen70 rec · 744 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@WASW6 2025 | CHI 25, WAS 24 | WAS | L |
| CHI@WASW5 2023 | CHI 40, WAS 20 | WAS | L |
| WAS@CHIW6 2022 | WAS 12, CHI 7 | CHI | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs WAS
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project WAS by 2.7. The market has WAS at -1.5.
The model projects 43.0 combined points. The market total is 46.5.
Week 8 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Chicago Bears, CHI 25, WAS 24 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Washington Commanders: CHI -0.088 against WAS +0.128.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
