WAS @ CHI – Week 6 2022
WAS
CHI
WAS
AWAY
12@7
WAS BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 6
2022 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
Model confidence: CHI 57%Our line: CHI -2.4
CHI
PICK SIDE
+1.0
MARKET SPREAD
-2.4
OUR LINE
-133
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.003Net EPA / play-0.164
-0.078Offense EPA / play-0.046
-0.075Defense EPA / play+0.118
40.4%Offense success %40.5%
39.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI C-tier pick misses. WAS takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CHI but WAS won. Projected margin was 2.4, the model overestimated by 7.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | WAS | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -120 | +109 |
| Our fair price | +133 | -133 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CHI +1.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
57%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
47%
DIFFERENCE
+10%
Both figures are for CHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CHI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
WAS
Terry McLaurin
WR
229.0 SEASON PPR
Curtis Samuel
WR
176.3 SEASON PPR
Antonio Gibson
RB
165.9 SEASON PPR
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
Taylor Heinicke1859 yd · 12 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
Brian Robinson797 yd · 2 TD
Antonio Gibson546 yd · 3 TD
Curtis Samuel187 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Terry McLaurin77 rec · 1191 yd · 5 TD
Curtis Samuel64 rec · 656 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@WASW6 2025 | CHI 25, WAS 24 | WAS | L |
| CHI@WASW8 2024 | CHI 15, WAS 18 | WAS | W |
| CHI@WASW5 2023 | CHI 40, WAS 20 | WAS | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs CHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 57% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CHI by 2.4. The market has CHI at +1.0.
The model projects 47.7 combined points. The market total is 38.5.
Week 6 of the 2022 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Chicago Bears, CHI 25, WAS 24 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Washington Commanders: WAS -0.003 against CHI -0.164.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
