2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIN @ MIA – Week 6 2022
MIN
MIA
MIN
AWAY
24@16
MIN +8
FINAL · WEEK 6
2022 SEASON
MIA
HOME
TIER B
PICK: MIN
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: MIN 60%Projected margin: -1.5
MIN
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-1.5
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIN. Projected margin: 1.5. Actual: 8. Off by 6.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | MIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -175 | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
MIN
Justin Jefferson
WR
368.7SEASON PPR
Kirk Cousins
QB
291.6SEASON PPR
Dalvin Cook
RB
237.8SEASON PPR
MIA
Tyreek Hill
WR
341.2SEASON PPR
Jaylen Waddle
WR
259.2SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES