MIN @ MIA – Week 6 2022
MIN
MIA
MIN
AWAY
24@16
MIN BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 6
2022 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
Model confidence: MIN 60%Our line: MIN -3.4
MIN
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.4
OUR LINE
-150
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.023Net EPA / play+0.039
-0.011Offense EPA / play+0.047
+0.012Defense EPA / play+0.008
44.9%Offense success %44.5%
45.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIN. Projected margin: 3.4. Actual: 8. Off by 4.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIN | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -175 | +157 |
| Our fair price | -150 | +150 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIN -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
60%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
62%
DIFFERENCE
-2%
Both figures are for MIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
MIN
Justin Jefferson
WR
368.7 SEASON PPR
Kirk Cousins
QB
291.6 SEASON PPR
Dalvin Cook
RB
237.8 SEASON PPR
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
Kirk Cousins4547 yd · 29 TD · 14 INT
RUSHING
Dalvin Cook1173 yd · 8 TD
Alexander Mattison283 yd · 5 TD
Kirk Cousins97 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Justin Jefferson128 rec · 1809 yd · 8 TD
Adam Thielen70 rec · 716 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs MIA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 3.4. The market has MIN at -3.0.
The model projects 46.4 combined points. The market total is 45.0.
Week 6 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Miami Dolphins: MIN -0.023 against MIA +0.039.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
