Vikings vs Dolphins – Week 6 2022
MIN
MIA
MIN
AWAY
24@16
MIN BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 6
2022 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 24, Miami Dolphins 16.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Dolphins.
Model confidence: MIN 60%Our line: MIN -3.4
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -3.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
-0.023Net EPA / play+0.039
-0.011 (19)Offense EPA / play+0.047 (7)
+0.012 (21)Defense EPA / play+0.008 (20)
44.9% (13)Offense success %44.5% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIN. Projected margin: 3.4. Actual: 8. Off by 4.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@MINW4 2026 | MIA 10, MIN 15 | MIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs MIA
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 3.4. The market has MIN at -3.0.
Minnesota Vikings won, MIN 24, MIA 16. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -3.0, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 6, the Miami Dolphins were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 1.4 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIA 10, MIN 15 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Miami Dolphins: MIN -0.023 against MIA +0.039.
