2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ PIT – Week 6 2022
TB
PIT
TB
AWAY
18@20
PIT +2
FINAL · WEEK 6
2022 SEASON
PIT
HOME
TIER A
PICK: TB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: TB 71%Projected margin: -6.6
TB
PICK SIDE
-10.0
SPREAD
-6.6
PROJ MARGIN
-422
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB A-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but PIT won. Projected margin was 6.6 -- the model overestimated by 8.6 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -10.0 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -422 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -386 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
PIT
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
271.7SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
226.1SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
225.4SEASON PPR
PIT
Najee Harris
RB
225.5SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
180.7SEASON PPR
George Pickens
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES