Buccaneers vs Steelers – Week 6 2022
TB
PIT
TB
AWAY
18@20
PIT BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 6
2022 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18, Pittsburgh Steelers 20.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 71% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Buccaneers, 6 Steelers.
Model confidence: TB 71%Our line: TB -7.5
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -10.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -7.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
-0.013Net EPA / play-0.012
-0.038 (21)Offense EPA / play+0.012 (12)
-0.025 (12)Defense EPA / play+0.024 (26)
43.8% (20)Offense success %45.1% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB A-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but PIT won. Projected margin was 7.5, the model overestimated by 9.5 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
PIT
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
271.7 SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
226.1 SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
225.4 SEASON PPR
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
Tom Brady4694 yd · 25 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
Mike Evans77 rec · 1124 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@TBW6 2026 | PIT 26, TB 19 | PIT | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs PIT
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 71% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project TB by 7.5. The market has TB at -10.0.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, TB 18, PIT 20. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 71% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -10.0, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 10.0 points.
In Week 6, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.7, 0.7 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT 26, TB 19 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: TB -0.013 against PIT -0.012.
