Skip to content
No
Punt
This Week
Predictions
Start here
How it works
Three models vote on every game. We publish the method, the calibration and every miss.
Read the methodology →
The games
Game Predictions
Live Win Probability
All 32 Teams
Compare Two Teams
2026 season
Projections Hub
Player Projections
Playoff Picture
Super Bowl Odds
Award Odds
Where teams stand
Standings
Power Rankings
Playoff Odds
Strength of Schedule
Remaining Schedule
The model
Methodology
Model Health
Calibration, in public
Model vs Market
Our Wins vs Vegas
Betting
Start here
The Edge
The short list of games the model flags as bets, with unit sizing and the price we would take.
See this week’s Edge →
The Edge
This Week’s Edge
Flagged bets, Pro
Model Edges
Bankroll & Sizing
Markets
Game Totals
Player Props
Same-Game Parlay
Pools
Survivor Picks
Ranked by win probability
Circa Survivor
Entries alive + availability
Pick'em Picks
Every game, straight up
Confidence Pool Picks
Points + expected points
Underdog Pool Picks
Every dog, priced
How Pools Work
Getting sharper
Expected Value
Closing Line Value
What ATS Means
Fantasy
Start here
Fantasy Hub
Sync your league and get lineups, trade grades and waiver targets under your exact scoring.
Connect a league →
Your week
Projections & Start/Sit
Fantasy Hub
Sync your league
Defense vs Position
Players
Stat Leaders
Player Ratings
NoPunt Player Rating
Next Gen Stats
Advanced Stats
Context
Coaching Tendencies
Season Outlook
Most Dramatic Games
Results
Learn
Start here
New here?
Eleven plain-English guides, from what a spread is to how closing line value works.
Start with the basics →
Betting basics
All Guides
How Spreads Work
Odds Explained
Bankroll Management
Betting Calculators
Free, no login
The game
What is EPA
Stats Glossary
Power Rankings Explained
How Standings Work
How Playoffs Work
NoPunt
About NoPunt
Blog
Full Ledger
Ledger Explorer
Filter and sort, Pro
For developers
Public JSON API
Data Exports
CSV, Pro
GO PRO
NFL Season Outlook · As of Week 5 · QB Pace Projections · NoPunt
SEASON
SEASON STAT PROJECTIONS
Season Outlook
Pace-based end-of-season projections as of Week 5. Milestone probabilities included.
5,419
Bryce Young · PASS YDS PACE
W5
PROJECTION WEEK
AS OF WEEK 5 · 43 QB PLAYERS PROJECTED
QB
RB
WR
TE
PASS YDS PACE LEADERS
TOP 5 · AS OF WEEK 5
#
PLAYER
GP
CURRENT
PACE
/G
1
Bryce Young
CAR
4
1,268
5,419
317.0
2
Matthew Stafford
LAR
5
1,572
5,359
314.4
3
Jared Goff
DET
5
1,485
4,915
297.0
4
C.J. Stroud
HOU
5
1,402
4,772
280.4
5
Jordan Love
GB
5
1,408
4,768
281.6
QB SEASON PROJECTIONS
PACE-BASED · AS OF WEEK 5
B.Young
QB ·
CAR
· 4G played, 13G remaining
STAT
CURRENT
PROJ
PASS YDS
1,268
(317.0/g)
5,419
PASS TD
9
(2.2/g)
38
INT
Player Props
→
Fantasy Projections
→
Stat Leaders
→
Season Awards
→
2
(0.5/g)
9
RUSH YDS
19
(4.8/g)
81
RUSH TD
1
(0.2/g)
4
M.Stafford
QB ·
LAR
· 5G played, 12G remaining
STAT
CURRENT
PROJ
PASS YDS
1,572
(314.4/g)
5,359
PASS TD
9
(1.8/g)
31
INT
6
(1.2/g)
21
RUSH YDS
21
(4.2/g)
72
J.Goff
QB ·
DET
· 5G played, 12G remaining
STAT
CURRENT
PROJ
PASS YDS
1,485
(297.0/g)
4,915
PASS TD
12
(2.4/g)
40
RUSH YDS
16
(3.2/g)
53
RUSH TD
1
(0.2/g)
3
C.Stroud
QB ·
HOU
· 5G played, 12G remaining
STAT
CURRENT
PROJ
PASS YDS
1,402
(280.4/g)
4,772
PASS TD
6
(1.2/g)
20
RUSH YDS
71
(14.2/g)
240
RUSH TD
1
(0.2/g)
3
J.Love
QB ·
GB
· 5G played, 12G remaining
STAT
CURRENT
PROJ
PASS YDS
1,408
(281.6/g)
4,768
PASS TD
10
(2.0/g)
34
INT
3
(0.6/g)
10
D.Prescott
QB ·
DAL
· 5G played, 12G remaining
STAT
CURRENT
PROJ
PASS YDS
1,381
(276.2/g)
4,674
PASS TD
9
(1.8/g)
31
INT
3
(0.6/g)
10
RUSH YDS
66
(13.2/g)
226
J.Burrow
QB ·
CIN
· 5G played, 12G remaining
STAT
CURRENT
PROJ
PASS YDS
1,361
(272.2/g)
4,618
PASS TD
11
(2.2/g)
37
INT
3
(0.6/g)
10
RUSH YDS
48
(9.6/g)
162
RUSH TD
1
(0.2/g)
3
T.Shough
QB ·
NO
· 5G played, 12G remaining
STAT
CURRENT
PROJ
PASS YDS
1,299
(259.8/g)
4,418
PASS TD
9
(1.8/g)
31
INT
5
(1.0/g)
17
RUSH YDS
72
(14.4/g)
244
RUSH TD
1
(0.2/g)
3
P.Mahomes
QB ·
KC
· 4G played, 13G remaining
STAT
CURRENT
PROJ
PASS YDS
1,037
(259.2/g)
4,407
PASS TD
9
(2.2/g)
39
INT
2
(0.5/g)
9
RUSH YDS
41
(10.2/g)
174
RUSH TD
1
(0.2/g)
4
K.Cousins
QB ·
LV
· 5G played, 12G remaining
STAT
CURRENT
PROJ
PASS YDS
1,269
(253.8/g)
4,305
PASS TD
12
(2.4/g)
41
INT
4
(0.8/g)
14
A.Rodgers
QB ·
PIT
· 5G played, 12G remaining
STAT
CURRENT
PROJ
PASS YDS
1,234
(246.8/g)
4,233
PASS TD
10
(2.0/g)
34
INT
4
(0.8/g)
14
RUSH YDS
18
(3.6/g)
61
L.Jackson
QB ·
BAL
· 4G played, 13G remaining
STAT
CURRENT
PROJ
PASS YDS
967
(241.8/g)
4,182
PASS TD
6
(1.5/g)
25
INT
1
(0.2/g)
4
RUSH YDS
144
(36.0/g)
608
RUSH TD
1
(0.2/g)
4
J.Allen
QB ·
BUF
· 5G played, 12G remaining
STAT
CURRENT
PROJ
PASS YDS
1,249
(249.8/g)
4,180
PASS TD
7
(1.4/g)
24
INT
4
(0.8/g)
14
RUSH YDS
239
(47.8/g)
805
RUSH TD
8
(1.6/g)
27
D.Maye
QB ·
NE
· 5G played, 12G remaining
STAT
CURRENT
PROJ
PASS YDS
1,228
(245.6/g)
4,150
PASS TD
8
(1.6/g)
27
INT
7
(1.4/g)
24
RUSH YDS
161
(32.2/g)
545
RUSH TD
1
(0.2/g)
3
B.Purdy
QB ·
SF
· 5G played, 12G remaining
STAT
CURRENT
PROJ
PASS YDS
1,196
(239.2/g)
4,070
PASS TD
13
(2.6/g)
45
INT
2
(0.4/g)
7
RUSH YDS
128
(25.6/g)
439
RUSH TD
1
(0.2/g)
3
T.Lawrence
QB ·
JAX
· 5G played, 12G remaining
STAT
CURRENT
PROJ
PASS YDS
1,174
(234.8/g)
3,987
PASS TD
10
(2.0/g)
34
INT
3
(0.6/g)
10
RUSH YDS
59
(11.8/g)
200