AFC East · #3 NET EPA · 2025 SEASON
Buffalo Bills
FOR 66-21 (76%)VS 6-7 (46%)ATS 45-39 (54%)481–365 PTS
FOR is our pick record when we backed this team; VS is our record when we picked against them. ATS is the team's record against the spread.
SEASON OPENER · WEEK 1
@
Houston TexansSUN 1:00 PM
VIEW MATCHUP →@Houston TexansKEY INSIGHTS
DATA-DRIVEN ANALYSISRanked #3 in the NFL by net EPA per play, an elite-tier team.
Run-first approach, passes on just 51.0% of plays.
Elite red zone efficiency, scores touchdowns on 78.3% of red zone trips.
EPA PERFORMANCE
2025 SEASON FINAL+0.152
NET EPA/PLAY
+0.136
OFF EPA/PLAY
-0.016
DEF EPA/PLAY
+0.160
PASS EPA/PLAY
+0.110
RUSH EPA/PLAY
EPA TREND
1999–2025 · 27 SEASONS+0.144
+0.035
-0.101
+0.010
-0.022
+0.096
-0.168
-0.059
-0.151
-0.048
-0.088
-0.182
-0.066
-0.082
+0.001
+0.041
+0.015
+0.049
-0.084
-0.056
+0.064
+0.147
+0.242
+0.168
+0.182
+0.197
+0.152
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| SEASON | NET EPA | OFF EPA | DEF EPA | PTS FOR | PTS AGN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +0.152 | +0.136 | -0.016 | 481 | 365 |
| 2024 | +0.197 | +0.189 | -0.009 | 525 | 368 |
| 2023 | +0.182 | +0.108 | -0.074 | 451 | 311 |
| 2022 | +0.168 | +0.116 | -0.052 | 455 | 286 |
| 2021 | +0.242 | +0.101 | -0.141 | 483 | 289 |
| 2020 | +0.147 | +0.164 | +0.017 | 501 | 375 |
| 2019 | +0.064 | -0.026 | -0.090 | 314 | 259 |
| 2018 | -0.056 | -0.149 | -0.094 | 269 | 374 |
| 2017 | -0.084 | -0.069 | +0.015 | 302 | 359 |
| 2016 | +0.049 | +0.067 | +0.018 | 399 | 378 |
| 2015 | +0.015 | +0.046 | +0.031 | 379 | 359 |
| 2014 | +0.041 | -0.074 | -0.115 | 343 | 289 |
| 2013 | +0.001 | -0.086 | -0.087 | 339 | 388 |
| 2012 | -0.082 | -0.010 | +0.072 | 344 | 435 |
| 2011 | -0.066 | -0.013 | +0.053 | 372 | 434 |
| 2010 | -0.182 | -0.111 | +0.071 | 283 | 425 |
| 2009 | -0.088 | -0.126 | -0.038 | 258 | 326 |
| 2008 | -0.048 | -0.050 | -0.002 | 336 | 342 |
| 2007 | -0.151 | -0.127 | +0.025 | 252 | 354 |
| 2006 | -0.059 | -0.095 | -0.037 | 300 | 311 |
| 2005 | -0.168 | -0.101 | +0.066 | 271 | 367 |
| 2004 | +0.096 | -0.074 | -0.169 | 395 | 284 |
| 2003 | -0.022 | -0.124 | -0.102 | 243 | 279 |
| 2002 | +0.010 | +0.011 | +0.001 | 379 | 397 |
| 2001 | -0.101 | -0.076 | +0.025 | 265 | 420 |
| 2000 | +0.035 | -0.059 | -0.093 | 302 | 328 |
| 1999 | +0.144 | -0.020 | -0.164 | 320 | 229 |
COACHING TENDENCIES
FULL RANKINGS →PASS RATE
51.0%
EARLY DOWN PASS
45.7%
SHOTGUN RATE
49.8%
NO HUDDLE
6.1%
4TH DOWN GO
31.7%
4TH DOWN CONV
59.4%
3RD DOWN CONV
45.9%
RED ZONE TD
78.3%
GOAL-TO-GO TD
—
2-MIN DRILL EPA
+0.104
PTS/DRIVE
2.5
PLAYS/DRIVE
6.3
COACHING TREND
2020–2025 · 6 SEASONS| SEASON | PASS% | 4TH GO% | 3RD CONV% | RZ TD% | PTS/DRV | HALF ADJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 51.0% | 31.7% | 45.9% | 78.3% | 2.5 | +0.048 |
| 2024 | 53.1% | 20.9% | 45.0% | 90.9% | 2.6 | -0.019 |
| 2023 | 55.2% | 16.7% | 50.0% | 91.3% | 2.1 | +0.050 |
| 2022 | 59.6% | 15.1% | 51.3% | 79.2% | 2.1 | -0.121 |
| 2021 | 61.0% | 21.1% | 47.3% | 95.8% | 2.2 | +0.118 |
| 2020 | 62.0% | 12.2% | 51.1% | 78.3% | 2.5 | -0.069 |
TOP PLAYERS
ALL LEADERS →| PLAYER | POS | GP | PASS YD | RUSH YD | REC YD | TD | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J.Allen | QB | 16 | 3,668 | 579 | — | 39 | 364.6 |
| J.Cook | RB | 17 | — | 1,621 | 291 | 14 | 302.2 |
| Ty.Johnson | RB | 17 | — | 200 | 263 | 5 | 100.3 |
| K.Shakir | WR | 16 | — | 5 | 719 | 4 | 166.4 |
| K.Coleman | WR | 12 | — | — | 404 | 4 | 102.4 |
| J.Palmer | WR | 12 | — | — | 303 | 0 | 52.3 |
| D.Kincaid | TE | 12 | — | — | 571 | 5 | 126.1 |
HOME / AWAY
GAME RESULTS BY LOCATION · 2020–2026 · 7 SEASONSHOME
42-9
82% WIN RATE
AWAY
31-18
63% WIN RATE
NOPUNT PICK RECORD
2020–2026 · 7 SEASONS66-21
PICKS FOR
76%
FOR ACCURACY
6-7
PICKS AGAINST
46%
AGAINST ACCURACY
100
GAMES TRACKED
ATS SPLITS
WHEN WE PICK BUF · 2020–2026 · 7 SEASONSHOME
24-20
54.5%
AWAY
21-19
52.5%
FAVORITE
39-36
52.0%
UNDERDOG
6-3
66.7%
S TIER
7-7
A+ TIER
6-8
A TIER
0-4
B TIER
26-18
C TIER
6-2
BY OPPONENT
MIN 2 PICKS FOR BUF · 2020–2026 · 7 SEASONS
vs CLE2-0
vs TB2-0
vs KC4-0
vs CAR2-0
vs NO2-0
vs SF2-0
vs SEA2-0
vs LAC2-0
vs WAS2-0
vs LV2-0
vs NYJ10-2
vs MIA10-2
vs PIT3-1
vs NE6-3
vs TEN2-1
vs CIN1-1
vs ATL1-1
vs LAR1-1
vs IND1-1
vs BAL1-1
vs DEN1-1
vs HOU1-2
vs JAX1-2
PICK HISTORY
NEWEST FIRST| Week | Matchup | Our Pick | Tier | Conf. | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026·W18 | NYJ @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | FCST | 85% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W17 | BUF @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | BUF | FCST | 70% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W16 | BUF @ DENFRI 4:30 PM | DEN | B | 64% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W15 | CHI @ BUFSAT 8:20 PM | BUF | FCST | 69% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W14 | BUF @ GBSUN 8:20 PM | BUF | FCST | 66% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W13 | BUF @ NESUN 4:25 PM | NE | FCST | 62% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W12 | KC @ BUFTHU 8:20 PM | BUF | A+ | 79% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W11 | MIA @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | FCST | 77% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W10 | BUF @ NYJSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | FCST | 80% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W9 | BUF @ MINMON 8:15 PM | BUF | FCST | 63% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W8 | BAL @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | FCST | 72% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W6 | BUF @ LVSUN 4:25 PM | BUF | A+ | 80% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W5 | BUF @ LARMON 8:15 PM | LAR | B | 63% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W4 | NE @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | B | 62% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W3 | LAC @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | A | 71% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W2 | DET @ BUFTHU 8:15 PM | BUF | A | 71% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W1 | BUF @ HOUSUN 1:00 PM | HOU | C | 62% | — | PENDING |
| 2025·W18 | NYJ @ BUFSUN 4:25 PM | BUF | S | 85% | NYJ 8–35 BUF | WIN |
| 2025·W17 | PHI @ BUFSUN 4:25 PM | BUF | B | 64% | PHI 13–12 BUF | LOSS |
| 2025·W16 | BUF @ CLESUN 1:00 PM | BUF | A+ | 80% | BUF 23–20 CLE | WIN |
| 2025·W15 | BUF @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | B | 59% | BUF 35–31 NE | LOSS (vs) |
| 2025·W14 | CIN @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | A | 72% | CIN 34–39 BUF | WIN |
| 2025·W13 | BUF @ PITSUN 4:25 PM | BUF | C | 60% | BUF 26–7 PIT | WIN |
| 2025·W12 | BUF @ HOUTHU 8:15 PM | BUF | B | 64% | BUF 19–23 HOU | LOSS |
| 2025·W11 | TB @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | B | 65% | TB 32–44 BUF | WIN |
| 2025·W10 | BUF @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | BUF | A | 72% | BUF 13–30 MIA | LOSS |
| 2025·W9 | KC @ BUFSUN 4:25 PM | BUF | B | 61% | KC 21–28 BUF | WIN |
| 2025·W8 | BUF @ CARSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | C | 62% | BUF 40–9 CAR | WIN |
| 2025·W6 | BUF @ ATLMON 7:15 PM | BUF | B | 67% | BUF 14–24 ATL | LOSS |
| 2025·W5 | NE @ BUFSUN 8:20 PM | BUF | S | 82% | NE 23–20 BUF | LOSS |
| 2025·W4 | NO @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | S | 84% | NO 19–31 BUF | WIN |
| 2025·W3 | MIA @ BUFTHU 8:15 PM | BUF | S | 81% | MIA 21–31 BUF | WIN |
| 2025·W2 | BUF @ NYJSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | A+ | 76% | BUF 30–10 NYJ | WIN |
| 2025·W1 | BAL @ BUFSUN 8:20 PM | BAL | C | 58% | BAL 40–41 BUF | LOSS (vs) |
| 2024·W18 | BUF @ NESUN 1:00 PM | BUF | S | 83% | BUF 16–23 NE | LOSS |
| 2024·W17 | NYJ @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | S | 83% | NYJ 14–40 BUF | WIN |
| 2024·W16 | NE @ BUFSUN 4:25 PM | BUF | S | 85% | NE 21–24 BUF | WIN |
| 2024·W15 | BUF @ DETSUN 4:25 PM | DET | B | 63% | BUF 48–42 DET | LOSS (vs) |
| 2024·W14 | BUF @ LARSUN 4:25 PM | BUF | B | 69% | BUF 42–44 LAR | LOSS |
| 2024·W13 | SF @ BUFSUN 8:20 PM | BUF | A+ | 75% | SF 10–35 BUF | WIN |
| 2024·W11 | KC @ BUFSUN 4:25 PM | BUF | B | 61% | KC 21–30 BUF | WIN |
| 2024·W10 | BUF @ INDSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | B | 69% | BUF 30–20 IND | WIN |
| 2024·W9 | MIA @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | A+ | 76% | MIA 27–30 BUF | WIN |
| 2024·W8 | BUF @ SEASUN 4:05 PM | BUF | B | 65% | BUF 31–10 SEA | WIN |
| 2024·W7 | TEN @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | S | 79% | TEN 10–34 BUF | WIN |
| 2024·W6 | BUF @ NYJMON 8:15 PM | BUF | B | 67% | BUF 23–20 NYJ | WIN |
| 2024·W5 | BUF @ HOUSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | B | 64% | BUF 20–23 HOU | LOSS |
| 2024·W4 | BUF @ BALSUN 8:20 PM | BUF | B | 62% | BUF 10–35 BAL | LOSS |
| 2024·W3 | JAX @ BUFMON 7:30 PM | BUF | A+ | 77% | JAX 10–47 BUF | WIN |
| 2024·W2 | BUF @ MIATHU 8:15 PM | BUF | B | 63% | BUF 31–10 MIA | WIN |
| 2024·W1 | ARI @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | A+ | 75% | ARI 28–34 BUF | WIN |
| 2023·W18 | BUF @ MIASUN 8:20 PM | BUF | B | 60% | BUF 21–14 MIA | WIN |
| 2023·W17 | NE @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | A+ | 80% | NE 21–27 BUF | WIN |
| 2023·W16 | BUF @ LACSAT 8:00 PM | BUF | B | 69% | BUF 24–22 LAC | WIN |
| 2023·W15 | DAL @ BUFSUN 4:25 PM | DAL | B | 58% | DAL 10–31 BUF | LOSS (vs) |
| 2023·W14 | BUF @ KCSUN 4:25 PM | KC | B | 60% | BUF 20–17 KC | LOSS (vs) |
| 2023·W12 | BUF @ PHISUN 4:25 PM | PHI | B | 60% | BUF 34–37 PHI | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W11 | NYJ @ BUFSUN 4:25 PM | BUF | A+ | 78% | NYJ 6–32 BUF | WIN |
| 2023·W10 | DEN @ BUFMON 8:15 PM | BUF | A+ | 77% | DEN 24–22 BUF | LOSS |
| 2023·W9 | BUF @ CINSUN 8:20 PM | BUF | B | 58% | BUF 18–24 CIN | LOSS |
| 2023·W8 | TB @ BUFTHU 8:15 PM | BUF | B | 70% | TB 18–24 BUF | WIN |
| 2023·W7 | BUF @ NESUN 1:00 PM | BUF | A+ | 78% | BUF 25–29 NE | LOSS |
| 2023·W6 | NYG @ BUFSUN 8:20 PM | BUF | S | 85% | NYG 9–14 BUF | WIN |
| 2023·W5 | JAX @ BUFSUN 9:30 AM | BUF | A | 72% | JAX 25–20 BUF | LOSS |
| 2023·W4 | MIA @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | B | 66% | MIA 20–48 BUF | WIN |
| 2023·W3 | BUF @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | B | 70% | BUF 37–3 WAS | WIN |
| 2023·W2 | LV @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | B | 69% | LV 10–38 BUF | WIN |
| 2023·W1 | BUF @ NYJMON 8:15 PM | BUF | A+ | 78% | BUF 16–22 NYJ | LOSS |
| 2022·W18 | NE @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | A+ | 76% | NE 23–35 BUF | WIN |
| 2022·W16 | BUF @ CHISAT 1:00 PM | BUF | S | 81% | BUF 35–13 CHI | WIN |
| 2022·W15 | MIA @ BUFSAT 8:15 PM | BUF | B | 69% | MIA 29–32 BUF | WIN |
| 2022·W14 | NYJ @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | A+ | 73% | NYJ 12–20 BUF | WIN |
| 2022·W13 | BUF @ NETHU 8:15 PM | BUF | B | 62% | BUF 24–10 NE | WIN |
| 2022·W12 | BUF @ DETTHU 12:30 PM | BUF | B | 67% | BUF 28–25 DET | WIN |
| 2022·W11 | CLE @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | B | 70% | CLE 23–31 BUF | WIN |
| 2022·W10 | MIN @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | C | 59% | MIN 33–30 BUF | LOSS |
| 2022·W9 | BUF @ NYJSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | A | 72% | BUF 17–20 NYJ | LOSS |
| 2022·W8 | GB @ BUFSUN 8:20 PM | BUF | B | 69% | GB 17–27 BUF | WIN |
| 2022·W6 | BUF @ KCSUN 4:25 PM | BUF | C | 57% | BUF 24–20 KC | WIN |
| 2022·W5 | PIT @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | B | 70% | PIT 3–38 BUF | WIN |
| 2022·W4 | BUF @ BALSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | B | 67% | BUF 23–20 BAL | WIN |
| 2022·W3 | BUF @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | BUF | B | 61% | BUF 19–21 MIA | LOSS |
| 2022·W2 | TEN @ BUFMON 7:15 PM | BUF | B | 65% | TEN 7–41 BUF | WIN |
| 2022·W1 | BUF @ LARTHU 8:20 PM | BUF | B | 62% | BUF 31–10 LAR | WIN |
| 2021·W18 | NYJ @ BUFSUN 4:25 PM | BUF | S | 72% | NYJ 10–27 BUF | WIN |
| 2021·W17 | ATL @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | B | 64% | ATL 15–29 BUF | WIN |
| 2021·W16 | BUF @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | C | 55% | BUF 33–21 NE | LOSS (vs) |
| 2021·W15 | CAR @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | B | 64% | CAR 14–31 BUF | WIN |
| 2021·W14 | BUF @ TBSUN 4:25 PM | TB | B | 56% | BUF 27–33 TB | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W13 | NE @ BUFMON 8:15 PM | NE | C | 49% | NE 14–10 BUF | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W12 | BUF @ NOTHU 8:20 PM | BUF | B | 54% | BUF 31–6 NO | WIN |
| 2021·W11 | IND @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | B | 56% | IND 41–15 BUF | LOSS |
| 2021·W10 | BUF @ NYJSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | S | 74% | BUF 45–17 NYJ | WIN |
| 2021·W9 | BUF @ JAXSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | S | 78% | BUF 6–9 JAX | LOSS |
| 2021·W8 | MIA @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | A+ | 73% | MIA 11–26 BUF | WIN |
| 2021·W6 | BUF @ TENMON 8:15 PM | BUF | B | 64% | BUF 31–34 TEN | LOSS |
| 2021·W5 | BUF @ KCSUN 8:20 PM | BUF | B | 59% | BUF 38–20 KC | WIN |
| 2021·W4 | HOU @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | S | 74% | HOU 0–40 BUF | WIN |
| 2021·W3 | WAS @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | A+ | 65% | WAS 21–43 BUF | WIN |
| 2021·W2 | BUF @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | BUF | B | 55% | BUF 35–0 MIA | WIN |
| 2021·W1 | PIT @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | B | 63% | PIT 23–16 BUF | LOSS |
| 2020·W17 | MIA @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | B | 58% | MIA 26–56 BUF | WIN |
| 2020·W16 | BUF @ NEMON 8:15 PM | BUF | B | 62% | BUF 38–9 NE | WIN |
| 2020·W15 | BUF @ DENSAT 4:30 PM | BUF | B | 60% | BUF 48–19 DEN | WIN |
| 2020·W14 | PIT @ BUFSUN 8:20 PM | BUF | C | 50% | PIT 15–26 BUF | WIN |
| 2020·W13 | BUF @ SFMON 8:15 PM | BUF | C | 51% | BUF 34–24 SF | WIN |
| 2020·W12 | LAC @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | B | 64% | LAC 17–27 BUF | WIN |
| 2020·W10 | BUF @ ARISUN 4:05 PM | ARI | C | 47% | BUF 30–32 ARI | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W9 | SEA @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | C | 52% | SEA 34–44 BUF | WIN |
| 2020·W8 | NE @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | B | 58% | NE 21–24 BUF | WIN |
| 2020·W7 | BUF @ NYJSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | C | 57% | BUF 18–10 NYJ | WIN |
| 2020·W6 | KC @ BUFMON 5:00 PM | KC | C | 54% | KC 26–17 BUF | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W5 | BUF @ TENTUE 7:00 PM | TEN | C | 53% | BUF 16–42 TEN | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W4 | BUF @ LVSUN 4:25 PM | BUF | B | 57% | BUF 30–23 LV | WIN |
| 2020·W3 | LAR @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | LAR | C | 51% | LAR 32–35 BUF | LOSS (vs) |
| 2020·W2 | BUF @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | BUF | B | 59% | BUF 31–28 MIA | WIN |
| 2020·W1 | NYJ @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | B | 55% | NYJ 17–27 BUF | WIN |