Bills vs Jets – Week 7 2020
BUF
NYJ
BUF
AWAY
18@10
BUF BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 7
2020 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 18, New York Jets 10.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Bills, 2 Jets.
Model confidence: BUF 57%Our line: BUF -2.6
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -9.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -2.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
+0.147Net EPA / play-0.227
+0.164 (4)Offense EPA / play-0.143 (32)
+0.017 (12)Defense EPA / play+0.084 (25)
50.2% (2)Offense success %40.2% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 2.6. Actual: 8. Off by 5.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
No noteworthy trends
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
52°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@BUFW18 2025 | NYJ 8, BUF 35 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW2 2025 | BUF 30, NYJ 10 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW17 2024 | NYJ 14, BUF 40 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW6 2024 | BUF 23, NYJ 20 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW11 2023 | NYJ 6, BUF 32 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs NYJ
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 57% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project BUF by 2.6. The market has BUF at -9.5.
Buffalo Bills won, BUF 18, NYJ 10. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -9.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 9.5 points.
In Week 7, the Buffalo Bills were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Jets were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 0.2 below the market.
Week 7 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, NYJ 8, BUF 35 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.147 against NYJ -0.227.
