Panthers vs Saints – Week 7 2020
CAR
NO
CAR
AWAY
24@27
NO BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 7
2020 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Carolina Panthers 24, New Orleans Saints 27.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Saints.
Model confidence: NO 65%Our line: NO -5.3
ODDS
SPREAD
NO -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -5.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.073Net EPA / play+0.177
+0.004 (20)Offense EPA / play+0.093 (9)
+0.077 (24)Defense EPA / play-0.084 (4)
45.0% (19)Offense success %47.6% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected NO by 5.3. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NO
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CAR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
241.2 SEASON PPR
Robbie Chosen
WR
224.1 SEASON PPR
Curtis Samuel
WR
212.1 SEASON PPR
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Carolina PanthersPASSING
Teddy Bridgewater3733 yd · 15 TD · 11 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@NOW15 2025 | CAR 17, NO 20 | CAR | L |
| NO@CARW10 2025 | NO 17, CAR 7 | CAR | L |
| NO@CARW9 2024 | NO 22, CAR 23 | NO | L |
| CAR@NOW1 2024 | CAR 10, NO 47 | NO | W |
| CAR@NOW14 2023 | CAR 6, NO 28 | NO | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs NO
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 65% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project NO by 5.3. The market has NO at -7.0.
New Orleans Saints won, CAR 24, NO 27. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New Orleans Saints at -7.0, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 7, the New Orleans Saints were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.2, 2.3 below the market.
Week 7 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New Orleans Saints, CAR 17, NO 20 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, New Orleans Saints: CAR -0.073 against NO +0.177.
