DAL @ WAS – Week 7 2020
DAL
WAS
DAL
AWAY
3@25
WAS BY 22
FINAL · WEEK 7
2020 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
Model confidence: DAL 56%Our line: DAL -2.1
DAL
PICK SIDE
-1.0
MARKET SPREAD
-2.1
OUR LINE
-128
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.098Net EPA / play+0.023
-0.038Offense EPA / play-0.067
+0.060Defense EPA / play-0.091
45.7%Offense success %41.2%
45.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick misses. WAS takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but WAS won. Projected margin was 2.1, the model overestimated by 24.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 23.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DAL | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -110 | +100 |
| Our fair price | -128 | +128 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DAL -1.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
56%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
51%
DIFFERENCE
+5%
Both figures are for DAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
46°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DAL
Amari Cooper
WR
236.8 SEASON PPR
Ezekiel Elliott
RB
223.7 SEASON PPR
CeeDee Lamb
WR
217.7 SEASON PPR
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Dallas CowboysPASSING
Andy Dalton2170 yd · 14 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Ezekiel Elliott979 yd · 6 TD
Tony Pollard435 yd · 4 TD
Andy Dalton114 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Amari Cooper92 rec · 1114 yd · 5 TD
CeeDee Lamb74 rec · 935 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@WASW17 2025 | DAL 30, WAS 23 | DAL | W |
| WAS@DALW7 2025 | WAS 22, DAL 44 | DAL | W |
| WAS@DALW18 2024 | WAS 23, DAL 19 | DAL | L |
| DAL@WASW12 2024 | DAL 34, WAS 26 | WAS | L |
| DAL@WASW18 2023 | DAL 38, WAS 10 | DAL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs WAS
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 56% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 2.1. The market has DAL at -1.0.
The model projects 48.3 combined points. The market total is 44.5.
Week 7 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, DAL 30, WAS 23 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Washington Commanders: DAL -0.098 against WAS +0.023.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
