Cowboys vs Commanders – Week 7 2020
DAL
WAS
DAL
AWAY
3@25
WAS BY 22
FINAL · WEEK 7
2020 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 3, Washington Commanders 25.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 56% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Cowboys, 5 Commanders.
Model confidence: DAL 56%Our line: DAL -2.1
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -2.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
56%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.098Net EPA / play+0.023
-0.038 (25)Offense EPA / play-0.067 (29)
+0.060 (20)Defense EPA / play-0.091 (3)
45.7% (17)Offense success %41.2% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick misses. WAS takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but WAS won. Projected margin was 2.1, the model overestimated by 24.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 23.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
46°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Dallas CowboysPASSING
Andy Dalton2170 yd · 14 TD · 8 INT
RECEIVING
Amari Cooper92 rec · 1114 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@DALW2 2026 | WAS 20, DAL 37 | DAL | W |
| DAL@WASW17 2025 | DAL 30, WAS 23 | DAL | W |
| WAS@DALW7 2025 | WAS 22, DAL 44 | DAL | W |
| WAS@DALW18 2024 | WAS 23, DAL 19 | DAL | L |
| DAL@WASW12 2024 | DAL 34, WAS 26 | WAS | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs WAS
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 56% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 2.1. The market has DAL at -1.0.
Washington Commanders won, DAL 3, WAS 25. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 56% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -1.0, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 7, the Dallas Cowboys were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Washington Commanders were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.3, 3.8 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, WAS 20, DAL 37 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Washington Commanders: DAL -0.098 against WAS +0.023.
