Commanders vs Cowboys – Week 2 2026
WAS
DAL
WAS
AWAY
20@37
DAL BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 2
2026 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 20, Dallas Cowboys 37.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Commanders, 2 Cowboys.
Model confidence: DAL 61%Our line: DAL -3.9
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.056Net EPA / play-0.066
-0.015 (15)Offense EPA / play+0.127 (7)
+0.041 (23)Defense EPA / play+0.193 (32)
39.8% (27)Offense success %47.9% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 3.9. Actual: 17. Off by 13.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 12.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@WASW17 2025 | DAL 30, WAS 23 | DAL | W |
| WAS@DALW7 2025 | WAS 22, DAL 44 | DAL | W |
| WAS@DALW18 2024 | WAS 23, DAL 19 | DAL | L |
| DAL@WASW12 2024 | DAL 34, WAS 26 | WAS | L |
| DAL@WASW18 2023 | DAL 38, WAS 10 | DAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 61% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DAL by 3.9. The market has DAL at -4.5.
Dallas Cowboys won, WAS 20, DAL 37. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -4.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 2, the Washington Commanders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Dallas Cowboys were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.6, 3.9 below the market, which our board calls an under.
Week 2 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, DAL 30, WAS 23 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Washington Commanders: WAS -0.056 against DAL -0.066.
