WAS @ DAL – Week 2 2026
WAS
DAL
WAS
AWAY
@
SUN 4:25 PM
WEEK 2 · 2026 SEASON
DAL
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: DAL 64%Projected margin: -2.7
DAL
PICK SIDE
-4.5
SPREAD
-2.7
PROJ MARGIN
-191
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.137Net EPA / play-0.070
+0.005Offense EPA / play+0.097
+0.142Defense EPA / play+0.167
45.6%Offense success %46.6%
47.6%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Model favors DAL (B-tier, 64% confidence).
HIGH CONVICTION
DAL is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
DAL goes for it on 4th down 30% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
H2H EDGE
DAL has won 4 of the last 5 meetings against WAS.
Net-positive signal profile for DAL. Grade: B.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.5 | DAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -191 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
WAS
D.Samuel
WR
188.2SEASON PPR
J.Croskey-Merritt
RB
140.3SEASON PPR
Z.Ertz
TE
126.4SEASON PPR
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
M.Mariota1695 yd · 10 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
J.Croskey-Merritt805 yd · 8 TD
C.Rodriguez500 yd · 6 TD
M.Mariota297 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
D.Samuel72 rec · 727 yd · 5 TD
T.McLaurin38 rec · 582 yd · 3 TD
Z.Ertz50 rec · 504 yd · 4 TD
J.Lane16 rec · 225 yd · 0 TD
VS
1,695PASSyds4,552
1,602RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@WASW18 2026 | — | WAS | — |
| DAL@WASW17 2025 | DAL 30, WAS 23 | DAL | W |
| WAS@DALW7 2025 | WAS 22, DAL 44 | DAL | W |
| WAS@DALW18 2024 | WAS 23, DAL 19 | DAL | L |
| DAL@WASW12 2024 | DAL 34, WAS 26 | WAS | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs DAL
Who is favored in Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys?
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 2.7. The market has DAL at -4.5.
When do the Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys play?
Week 2 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Who won the last Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys game?
Dallas Cowboys, 30-23 in Week 17 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Washington Commanders or the Dallas Cowboys?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Dallas Cowboys: WAS -0.137 against DAL -0.070.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
