JAX @ DEN – Week 2 2026
JAX
DEN
JAX
AWAY
@
SUN 4:05 PM
WEEK 2 · 2026 SEASON
DEN
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: DEN 64%Projected margin: -2.9
DEN
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
-2.9
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.136Net EPA / play+0.138
+0.030Offense EPA / play+0.050
-0.105Defense EPA / play-0.088
44.4%Offense success %44.2%
41.3%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
DEN is our B-tier play in JAX @ DEN (Week 2, 2026). The model assigns 64.3% confidence and projects DEN by 2.9. Market spread sits at DEN -2.5.
MODEL CONVICTION
High. The model is fully behind this side.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | DEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
JAX
T.Lawrence
QB
338.2SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
253.9SEASON PPR
P.Washington
WR
184.7SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Jacksonville JaguarsPASSING
T.Lawrence4007 yd · 29 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
T.Etienne1107 yd · 7 TD
T.Lawrence359 yd · 9 TD
B.Tuten307 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
P.Washington58 rec · 847 yd · 5 TD
B.Thomas48 rec · 707 yd · 2 TD
B.Strange46 rec · 540 yd · 3 TD
J.Meyers42 rec · 483 yd · 3 TD
VS
4,007PASSyds3,931
1,773RUSH
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@DENW16 2025 | JAX 34, DEN 20 | DEN | L |
| DEN@JAXW8 2022 | DEN 21, JAX 17 | JAX | L |
| DEN@JAXW2 2021 | DEN 23, JAX 13 | DEN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs DEN
Who is favored in Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos?
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DEN by 2.9. The market has DEN at -2.5.
When do the Jacksonville Jaguars and Denver Broncos play?
Week 2 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Who won the last Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos game?
Jacksonville Jaguars, 34-20 in Week 16 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Jacksonville Jaguars or the Denver Broncos?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Denver Broncos: JAX +0.136 against DEN +0.138.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
