Jaguars vs Broncos – Week 2 2026
JAX
DEN
JAX
AWAY
13@20
DEN BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 2
2026 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 13, Denver Broncos 20.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 58% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Broncos.
Model confidence: JAX 58%Our line: JAX -2.7
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.239Net EPA / play-0.041
+0.151 (6)Offense EPA / play-0.066 (24)
-0.088 (3)Defense EPA / play-0.025 (14)
46.9% (9)Offense success %39.9% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX C-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked JAX but DEN won. Projected margin was 2.7, the model overestimated by 9.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
73°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@DENW16 2025 | JAX 34, DEN 20 | DEN | L |
| DEN@JAXW8 2022 | DEN 21, JAX 17 | JAX | L |
| DEN@JAXW2 2021 | DEN 23, JAX 13 | DEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs DEN
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project JAX by 2.7. The market has JAX at +2.5.
Denver Broncos won, JAX 13, DEN 20. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 58% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at +2.5, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 2, the Denver Broncos were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 2.1 above the market, which our board calls an over.
Week 2 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, JAX 34, DEN 20 in Week 16 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX +0.239 against DEN -0.041.
