Steelers vs Patriots – Week 2 2026
PIT
NE
PIT
AWAY
3@20
NE BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 2
2026 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 3, New England Patriots 20.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Steelers, 2 Patriots.
Model confidence: NE 65%Our line: NE -5.3
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -5.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.046Net EPA / play+0.055
-0.046 (21)Offense EPA / play+0.046 (11)
+0.000 (18)Defense EPA / play-0.009 (17)
41.7% (21)Offense success %45.4% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 5.3. Actual: 17. Off by 11.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
63°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@NEW3 2025 | PIT 21, NE 14 | PIT | W |
| NE@PITW14 2023 | NE 21, PIT 18 | PIT | L |
| NE@PITW2 2022 | NE 17, PIT 14 | PIT | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs NE
Our model takes New England Patriots at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 5.3. The market has NE at -5.5.
New England Patriots won, PIT 3, NE 20. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New England Patriots at -5.5, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 2, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
NoPunt's model projects 47.7 combined points. No sportsbook total has been posted for this game yet.
Week 2 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT 21, NE 14 in Week 3 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, New England Patriots: PIT -0.046 against NE +0.055.
