PIT @ NE – Week 2 2026
PIT
NE
PIT
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 2 · 2026 SEASON
NE
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: NE 68%Projected margin: -5.3
NE
PICK SIDE
-4.5
SPREAD
-5.3
PROJ MARGIN
-191
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.007Net EPA / play+0.205
+0.025Offense EPA / play+0.158
+0.018Defense EPA / play-0.047
44.0%Offense success %48.4%
43.3%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
NE backed by epa edge at 68%.
EPA EDGE
NE generates 0.158 EPA/play on offense. PIT's defense allows 0.018. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
HIGH CONVICTION
NE is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
RED ZONE
NE converts 84% in the red zone vs 67% for PIT. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
Multiple signals align in NE's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.5 | NE market line | |
| MODEL ML | -191 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
PIT
A.Rodgers
QB
227.1SEASON PPR
K.Gainwell
RB
221.3SEASON PPR
J.Warren
RB
217.1SEASON PPR
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
A.Rodgers3322 yd · 24 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
J.Warren958 yd · 6 TD
K.Gainwell537 yd · 5 TD
K.Johnson69 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
D.Metcalf59 rec · 850 yd · 6 TD
K.Gainwell73 rec · 486 yd · 3 TD
P.Freiermuth41 rec · 486 yd · 4 TD
C.Austin31 rec · 372 yd · 3 TD
VS
3,322PASSyds4,394
1,564RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@NEW3 2025 | PIT 21, NE 14 | PIT | W |
| NE@PITW14 2023 | NE 21, PIT 18 | PIT | L |
| NE@PITW2 2022 | NE 17, PIT 14 | PIT | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs NE
Who is favored in Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots?
Our model takes New England Patriots at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 5.3. The market has NE at -4.5.
When do the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots play?
Week 2 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots game?
Pittsburgh Steelers, 21-14 in Week 3 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Pittsburgh Steelers or the New England Patriots?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New England Patriots: PIT +0.007 against NE +0.205.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
