2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NE @ PIT – Week 14 2023
NE
PIT
NE
AWAY
21@18
NE +3
FINAL · WEEK 14
2023 SEASON
PIT
HOME
TIER A
PICK: PIT
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: PIT 75%Projected margin: 6.9
PIT
PICK SIDE
-6.0
SPREAD
6.9
PROJ MARGIN
-237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT A-tier pick misses. NE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but NE won. Projected margin was 6.9 -- the model overestimated by 9.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.0 | PIT market line | |
| MODEL ML | -237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -270 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NE
Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
PIT
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
42°F
WIND
5 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NE
Ezekiel Elliott
RB
174.5SEASON PPR
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB
145.7SEASON PPR
Hunter Henry
TE
119.9SEASON PPR
PIT
George Pickens
WR
208.8SEASON PPR
Jaylen Warren
RB
196.4SEASON PPR
Najee Harris
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@NEW3 2025 | PIT 21, NE 14 | PIT | W |
| NE@PITW2 2022 | NE 17, PIT 14 | PIT | L |
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES